2011 Kentucky Derby Preview

Written by Roger Mayflower
Friday, 01 April 2011 07:04

The picture for the 2011 Kentucky Derby will become much clearer with the running of the Florida Derby this weekend.

And the running of Santa Anita, Wood Memorial, and Arkansas Derby all taking place within the next 2 ½  weeks will make things even more clear on who's who in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

In California, a large field is expected for Santa Anita Derby and the early favorite is Premier Pegasus, coming off a romp in the San Felipe Stakes last month.  Premier Pegasus, a dark bay son of Kentucky Derby champ Fusaichi Pegasus, still needs to step up his game as his Beyer figure of 96 for the San Felipe has him behind several of this year's top 3 year-old performers.  His primary rival is likely to be Bob Baffert's Jaycito, who finished 7 lengths behind him in the San Felipe.  Jaycito won a grade 1 race last year and he may have needed his 2011 debut, so look for an improvement from him this time out.

Perhaps the best horse in California shipped to Arkansas in March.  The Factor, trained by 3-time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert, announced his presence with authority in December by breaking a 6 furlong track record at Santa Anita in December at first asking in his maiden.  He followed it up with an impressive stakes win at 7 furlongs, then shipped to Oaklawn Park in Arkansas for the Grade II Rebel Stakes at 1 1/16 miles.   He broke cleanly, grabbed the lead, and cruised home in wire-to-wire fashion by over 6 lengths while recording a 103 Beyer speed figure.  The Factor will be a short odds favorite for the Arkansas Derby on April 16 where he could face a few new rivals.

Trainer Steve Asmussen will more than likely send his late-blooming colt Nehro, who ran a good 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, to Hot Springs on April 16th looking for enough graded stakes money to make the Derby cut.  Nehro could be joined by fellow Louisiana Derby 4th place finisher Elite Alex, who earlier this year ran 3rd in Oaklawn Park's Grade III Southwest Stakes.  Other strong contenders include Archarcharch, who won the Southwest Stakes and finished 3rd in the Rebel.

The field for the Florida Derby is led by Soldat, who earlier in the year won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in impressive fashion.  His primary rivals include To Honor and Serve, who was flattered when a horse he beat twice last year, Mucho Macho Man,  won the Risen Star Stakes at Fairgrounds in New Orleans.  He may have needed his 2011 debut in the Fountain of Youth, and his backers should remember he improved greatly following his 2 year-old bow last year.

The Wood Memorial is all about one horse, Uncle Mo.  Trainer Todd Pletcher has had Uncle Mo pointed toward this race for months now, and his charge needs to show some improvement after his 3 year-old debut in Gulfstream Park's ungraded Timely Writer Stakes.  After a stumble at the start of the 1 mile race, Uncle Mo quickly recovered to assume control of the race, and galloped out nicely afterward suggesting he's more than ready to go further.