2011 Kentucky Derby: Uncle Mo Yea or Nay?

Written by Roger Mayflower
Wednesday, 30 March 2011 14:27

Hold yourself tight and read our top  reasons for jumping off the Uncle Mo bandwagon.

Uncle Mo has been pointed toward the Kentucky Derby almost since the moment he broke his maiden last August at Saratoga in eye-popping fashion.  He raced only once more before the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, where he destroyed the field in one of the fastest times ever recorded at the event.  Is he as much a lock to win the 2011 Kentucky Derby as the futures oddsmakers seem to think?  We say not so fast!

One of the main reasons for concern with Uncle Mo is that he is so lightly raced.  His connections decided to make his 2011 debut in the ungraded Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park in March, where he broke very poorly before quickly rallying to top a mediocre and over-matched field at one mile.  Handicappers should be somewhat concerned that his Beyer figure for this race of 89 was by far the lowest of his career, slower than his maiden score at Saratoga.

His breeding is also causing some consternation among horse players and backers.  His sire, Indian Charlie, disappointed his backers by finishing 3rd to stablemate Real Quiet as a short money favorite at the 1998 Kentucky Derby.  He is a noted sire of excellent sprinters and milers, but most of his offspring have encountered the same problems as their sire when tackling the classic distances.   Uncle Mo's dam Playa Maya enjoyed mixed success at route distances, but with only 6 career races there is not much to sample for an authoritative and definitive judgment.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has set his sights on the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct as his final prep for the Kentucky Derby.  Run at 1 1/8 miles, this race will be 1/16 of a mile longer than Uncle Mo has ever run, so some questions may be answered at this race, or more may be raised.  At this time, it appears that the level of competition in the race may be substandard, as the main challengers for glory on the first Saturday in May are currently in Arkansas and Florida.

3-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert may get to play spoiler this year.  His 3 year-old colt, The Factor, broke his maiden at Santa Anita in December by breaking a 6 furlong track record, followed it up with a win in a graded stakes, then shipped to Arkansas where he proved he could sustain his speed by winning the 1 1/16 Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.  He has blazing speed and will set fractions faster than anything Uncle Mo has seen to this point.  This could easily compromise his stalking style, and could open up the Derby once again for a late, deep closer.

Getting a horse in the Derby and winning it can be viewed much like a row of dominoes.  To win the race, everything has to go right, to lose it, only one domino has to go astray.  Will Uncle Mo get a poor post and be mugged at the start much like Lookin' at Lucky was last year?  Will he be strung out so wide he runs closer to 1 ½ miles rather than 1 ¼?  Will he break poorly as he did in the Timely Writer?  If he does, this race will not be so forgiving, in all likelihood, a poor break will ensure a defeat.