Last 5 Kentucky Derby favorites analysis

Written by Caitlin Patton
Tuesday, 22 March 2011 09:10

Lookin at Lucky was the favorite for the 2010 Kentucky Derby from early on.

Another early favorite, Eskendereya, had to be scratched from the race a few weeks prior to its running, due to a leg injury.  Lookin at Lucky’s popularity held and he was the 3:1 favorite a few days before the race, but he got unlucky when he drew the number 1 post position – a position that is considered a difficult disadvantage.  This shifted some attention to the second favorite, Sidney’s Candy, whose odds were 5:1.

There were four 50:1 long shots in the Kentucky Derby field in 2010: Dean’s Kitten, Backtalk, Homeboykris, and Make Music for Me, who finished fourth.  The winner was Super Saver, who went off with 7:1 odds.  His victory was the first for his trainer, Todd Pletcher, and broke Pletcher’s streak of bad luck in 24 previous Kentucky Derbies (this losing streak probably had something to do with Super Saver being overlooked as a potential favorite). The favorite, Lookin at Lucky, finished sixth.

I Want Revenge, the favorite for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, had to be scratched the morning of the race because of a problem with his left hoof.  Without I Want Revenge, the field consisted of 19 horses.  Friesian Fire started the Derby as the favorite.  Dunkirk, a lean gray horse, was not as popular as I Want Revenge or Friesian Fire, but was another favorite for that year’s Derby.  He was mostly untested and had potential leg problems, but was clearly a talented horse.

The winner, Mine That Bird, was unexpected.  This gelding was a 50:1 long shot and paid $103.20.  His dramatic victory goes to show that favorites do not always win.  Pioneer of the Nile, another favorite prior to the race, finished second.

Big Brown was the 2.41:1 favorite in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, and won the race decisively.

The 2007 Kentucky Derby was also won by the favorite, Street Sense.  He ran with 9:2 odds, and paid $11.80, which made him the highest-priced winning favorite in the history of the Kentucky Derby. The second favorite was Curlin, with odds of 5:1.  Curlin was undefeated going into the Kentucky Derby, and had won the Arkansas Derby.  However, he had not raced as a two-year-old, and only one horse has ever won the Derby without racing the year before.  Curlin failed to become the second horse to do so.

The third favorite was Scat Daddy, whose odds were 7:1 and who had won the Florida Derby.  The fourth favorite, with 10:1 odds, was Hard Spun, the winner of the Land’s End Stakes.

Barbaro, the winner of the 2006 Kentucky Derby, was the second favorite, with odds of 6:1.  He raced as one of a field of twenty horses, and came into the race undefeated.  He left it that way too.  Bluegrass Cat, who had odds of 30:1 at race time, finished second.

Sweetnorthernsaint was the 5:1 favorite for the 2006 Kentucky Derby, but he finished seventh.  The 3:1 morning line favorite, Brother Derek, finished in a dead heat for fourth with Jazil.