Who Won and Who Got the Shaft in the Draw for the Kentucky Derby

Written by Roger Mayflower
Thursday, 05 May 2011 09:25

The Kentucky Derby Post position can make all the difference in the world in the Run for the Roses.

It can help to determine who gets a clean trip and who is most likely to get mugged, shuffled back, and forced to run closer to 1 ½ miles instead of 1 ¼.  Some colts came out winners in Wednesday's draw, some came out big-time losers.  Here is a rundown of the draw.

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Perhaps the worst draw and poorest luck went to Arkansas Derby champion Archarcharch.  He drew the dreaded post 1, the same post position that doomed last year's 3 year-old champ Lookin' at Lucky, who was repeatedly mugged leaving the gate.  With a bullet work over the local surface, Archarcharch has the early speed to avoid getting crushed against the rail in the rush to the 1st turn, as evidenced by his bullet workout at Churchill Downs on April 29th, but it may take something away from his devastating late kick.

Also getting a slap in the face from Lady Luck was Nehro.  The Louisiana and Arkansas Derby runner-up was hung wide in post 19.  This most certainly assures that the Steve Assmussen-trained colt will be wide around the first turn and forced to run a longer race.  Faring much better in the draw was the morning line favorite at 4-1, Dialed In, who drew post 8.  The Nick Zito charge should be able to stake out a favorable early position close to the rail for his deep stretch running style, and expect him to stay closer to the pace than he did in the Florida Derby before making his late charge.

Eclipse Award-winning juvenile Uncle Mo fared poorly in the draw, the 5-1 morning line 2nd choice is strung wide in post 18.   His connections can forget about trying to run on the front end from this post as they tried in the Wood Memorial.  Their best bet is to return him to his stalking style that he used last November in winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and hope he can use his tactical speed to get inside position before the first turn.

Getting a somewhat better post draw was Risen Star champ Mucho Macho Man, who will depart from post 13.  With only one horse close to his immediate outside, and then a gap to the auxiliary gate that holds posts 15 through 20, he may be able to secure a good inside position by the first turn.

Getting perhaps the best break of all was Santa Anita Derby runner-up Comma to the Top.  Drawing post position 6, the son of Bwana Charlie has drawn inside of the other early speed horses such as Soldat in post 17, Pants on Fire in post 7, Uncle Mo in post 18, and Shackleford in post 14.  If he breaks well and gets a rail-hugging trip from jockey Patrick Valenzuela, he could steal this race from the front end at odds of 30-1 or higher, or make the underlay in a very valuable exotic or trifecta bet.

Midnight Interlude breaks from the 15 hole, which has a noticeable space in-between it and post 14 due to the auxiliary gate, and was used by Smarty Jones to gain an early stalking spot behind Lionheart to win the 2004 Kentucky Derby.  If the Bob Baffert charge can break alertly, he can gain a perfect stalking position and has a shot to win the Kentucky Derby at 10-1 odds.

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