2011 Alabama Stakes: Picks on Winner & Trifecta

Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 19 August 2011 23:52

It’s time to make horse racing picks on the winner and the trifecta in the 2011 Alabama Stakes.

We started the week by releasing horse racing tips on the 2011 Alabama Stakes entries before then covering the post positions and odds, so now it is time to release our picks on the winner and the trifecta.  NBC will show the Alabama Stakes live with a 5:45 PM ET post time, and we hope to make watching the race all that much more enjoyable with some winning selections.  The 2011 Alabama Stakes has attracted a 6-horse filly field and there are 5 horses I see that have a serious chance to claim the largest portion of the $500,000 purse.

2011 Alabama Stakes Post Positions, Horses, and Odds:

1 – Royal Delta, 6-1

2 – Pinch Pie, 15-1

3 – Plum Pretty, 2-1

4 – It’s Tricky, 9-5

5 – St. John’s River, 5-1

6 – Inglorious, 6-1

Now, we can start the handicapping of the Alabama Stakes by tossing out Pinch Pie from consideration.  She’s coming off a win in the Desert Vixen but there is nothing I see that makes me believe there is a bet worth making here.  Pinch Pie is easily the long shot of the Alabama Stakes and I can’t even convince myself to take a flyer on some high-paying trifecta box.  She’s simply not good enough to run with this super-talented field of 3-year-old fillies.

I’ve already stated in previous articles that I’ll definitely be including Inglorious in my exotics, and nothing has changed since.  She’s the only horse in the Alabama Stakes field to have gone the 1 ¼-mile distance before and she dominated males last time out in the Queen’s Plate.  Her late leg kick looks like the best in the field and only a lack of pace will give others a chance.

Royal Delta should be in the middle of the pack for much of the race but I still don’t think she’s as good as some others in this race.  Her style and post position have some liking Royal Delta, but the more I look at it the more I have to rate her as the 5th best horse in a 6 horse field.

It’s Tricky is another horse that has looked extremely impressive, and she’ll definitely be included in my trifecta picks.  It will be interesting to see how much she pushes Plum Pretty’s lead, and that right there is the toughest part of figuring out the other horses in my trifecta.  Despite all that, It’s Tricky is a great horse that should be in the thick of things at the wire.

Plum Pretty is the very likely pace setter and she’ll try to wire the Alabama Stakes field on Saturday.  The problems I see here are that I consider to It’s Tricky to be the better horse no matter the pace, and if Plum Pretty gets pushed then I think the other closers fly by her at the end.  This will be her longest race to date and she appeared to tire quite a bit last time out in the shorter Coaching Club American Oaks.

St. John’s River is the deepest closer of the field and she’ll be flying to the front at the end of this race.  She’s coming off a win the Delaware Oaks and only races with a lesser distance have stopped her from overcoming her opponents.  St. John’s River will love the longer Alabama Stakes and she is going to be tough to beat with any sort of a pace.

2011 Alabama Stakes Picks – Trifecta Box:

St. John’s River

Inglorious

It’s Tricky

2011 Alabama Stakes Picks – Winner:

Inglorious

I see the Alabama Stakes unfolding like this.  Plum Pretty breaks first and is followed by It’s Tricky on her tail.  St. John’s River falls back with Inglorious near the back and Royal Delta 3-4 is lengths back.  It’s Tricky pulls even around the final turn and is battling a tiring Plum Pretty while Inglorious and St. John’s River come thundering up from the back of the pack.  Plum Pretty falls back behind the top 3 and it’s a razor-thin finish with Inglorious’ late leg kick being just enough to get by her heralded opponents.