2011 Grand National Betting Tips

Written by Roger Mayflower
Friday, 25 March 2011 11:12

Picking a winner from the field of 40+ entrants in the 2011 John Smith's Grand National is a tough task.

Knowing a few good rules of thumb can help you narrow the field down considerably to a handful of most likely winners.

The first step to picking a winner in the 2011 Grand National is getting your hands on a copy of the Racing Post as soon as it is published for the race.  One of the first things to study is the age of all entrants.  Betting on older horses in the Grand National has historically been a wasted bet.  In the three century history of the race, only 12 horses aged 12 and over have ever won the race.  Over the last 20 years, that number dwindles to three.

Just as old age is a barrier to winning the Grand National, betting on a young and inexperienced horse has over the years has proven to be just as ineffective.  Scratch any horses 7 years or younger when doing your initial Grand National handicapping.  The last time a 7 year-old won the race dates back to 1940, when Bogskar came home first.

In handicapping any horse or National Hunt race, one of the most obvious yet most overlooked aspect in handicapping is discerning which horses have had success over the length of the race in question.  The Grand National is run over 4 ½ grueling miles, with 16 fences to jump, all of which except two are jumped twice.  Any horse that has not had success in a similar race against the best of competition stands little chance in the Grand National.

Beware of any horses that have experienced falls in the races leading up to the Grand National.  A horse experiencing a fall immediately prior to the Grand National has very often in the past had extreme repercussions for any chances to win the race.  Falls can result in injuries that are not readily apparent to trainers and they can also affect the confidence of the horse in returning to a course with as many jumps as Aintree Race Course.

The Racing Post also has many other useful bits of information regarding all of the Grand National entries.  The most recent form in similar company is the best indicator of future performance.  It is extremely rare for horses who have run poorly in other National Hunt races to suddenly step up and win a race as difficult as the Grand National.  When studying the entries for the race, note what the horses' preferred surface conditions are.  Some horses prefer the turf soft, so if the track conditions on the day of the race are yielding due to recent rains, give those horses a very close look.  Conversely, some horses prefer a much more firm surface and run poorly in yielding turf conditions.

Use all of the tools at your disposal to make a logical wager on this year's Grand National and get the very best results.