2011 Pennsylvania Derby Tips: Picks on Winner & Trifecta

Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 23 September 2011 02:19

It’s time to make horse racing picks on the winner and the trifecta for Saturday’s 2011 Pennsylvania Derby.

We’ll eliminate the 2011 Pennsylvania Derby entries one by one until our picks become clear, and then we’ll preview the likely pace scenario toward the end of the article.  Parx Racing will host the Pennsylvania Derby and post time is set for around 5:45 PM ET.  The 9 Pennsylvania Derby entries look like a solid group and we’ll start out with a look at the odds and post positions before quickly tossing some race favorites.

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2011 Pennsylvania Derby Odd, Horses, and Post Positions:

1 – Ruler On Ice, 5-2

2 – Arthur’s Tale, 12-1

3 – Pender Harbour, 12-1

4 – Norman Asbjornson, 12-1

5 – Rush Now, 9-2

6 – Isn’t He Perfect, 20-1

7 – To Honor and Serve, 3-1

8 – J W Blue, 8-1

9 – Rattlesnake Bridge, 4-1

We’ll start our Pennsylvania Derby picks and tips by getting rid of Isn’t He Perfect and Rush Now.  Isn’t He Perfect is simply not good enough to compete with the field, while Rush Now just isn’t looking like a winner.  His own trainers have stated they aren’t that confident he’ll be good enough to run a good race, and I’m thinking he’s been entered here to help out stable mate J W Blue with his hot pace-setting fractions.

The next horse we will toss is Rattlesnake Bridge, despite the fact that we think he’s a quality horse that could spoil our Pennsylvania Derby trifecta.  He’ll stalk the pace and should have the early fractions he needs to do well, but ultimately there are other horses at juicier prices that have better chances to excel.  That outside spot in the post positions isn’t going to do him any favors, and I just don’t see touching him at the current odds.

Arthur’s Tale and Pender Harbour are both going to be fairly close to the pace but I just don’t think these two horses are as strong as others who will be running a similar race.  I think they’ll make moves to around the lead on the far turn, but ultimately they will just be outraced at the end.

Norman Asbjornson is the last horse to toss from the 2011 Pennsylvania Derby trifecta, and I really didn’t want to do it.  He pays well at 12-1 and I think he’s due for a huge improvement after some horrible moves have doomed him from wins in the past.  That being said, the fact that he hasn’t raced since the Preakness Stakes scares me a bit, as does the fact that I haven’t seen that killer instinct.

2011 Pennsylvania Derby Picks – Trifecta Box:

To Honor and Serve, 3-1

J W Blue, 8-1

Ruler On Ice, 5-2

To Honor and Serve made the cut because I feel he’s the most talented horse in the field and, after having 2 starts since coming back from injury, should be in top form.  J W Blue is included because his come-from-behind style will be a perfect fit for Rush Now’s quick pace.  Ruler On Ice gets into our Pennsylvania Derby picks because there is a 70% chance for rain and this horse loves the mud.

2011 Pennsylvania Derby Picks – Winner:

Ruler On Ice, 5-2

To Honor and Serve and Ruler On Ice both need this type of pace to be at their best, and both are great horses that should be in perfect positions to make a big charge late.  J W Blue will be coming from much further back but should be able to pass just about everyone.  It’s tough to pick two of these three to go against, but ultimately I think the poor weather will have Ruler On Ice taking home the win in the Pennsylvania Derby.  The distance could be longer to have him at 100% effectiveness, but ultimately he has too many things going for him to make picks on anyone else.