Arkansas Derby Horse Racing Tips and Predictions

Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 15 April 2011 17:45

Predictions and horse racing tips are ready to go in the 2011 Arkansas Derby.

The 2011 Arkansas Derby field is littered with potential Kentucky Derby contenders and we’ll breakdown the horses and then release horse racing betting selections on the winner and a trifecta.  There are 13 horses ready to run on the 1 1/8-mile dirt track at Oaklawn Park, and it would not surprise me at all if the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner came out of this field.

Arkansas Derby Post Positions, Odds, and Tips:

1 – Caleb’s Posse, 10/1

Took 2nd to Arkansas Derby race favorite The Factor in the Rebel Stakes, but that was a turf race.  Caleb’s Posse has run twice on dirt at Oaklawn Park and has a 1st and a 6th to show for it.  The 1st in the Smarty Jones was against a weaker field and I think the Arkansas Derby horses might be a bit too much for this guy.

1a – Alternation, 10/1

Alternation has 2 career races and both were mile or longer victories on dirt at Oaklawn Park.  He’s beaten Kentucky Derby contender and Arkansas Derby entry Elite Alex before but his winning times in the two allowance races don’t make me think he has the speed to keep up on Saturday.

2 – Nehro, 5/1

After taking 4th and 10th in two attempts to break maiden, the light switch came on for Nehro and he took home 1st place in a maiden before putting in a strong 2nd in the Louisiana Derby.  This is the typical late developing horse and, with Mineshaft as his sire, I think he’s only going to get better with age and more distance.  Don’t leave this guy out because another massive jump in form is to be expected.

3 – Elite Alex, 8/1

This guy has been a huge disappointment in his short career but he has the talent to pull a big upset today if things go right.  Elite Alex will be wearing blinders for the first time and has run two races at Oaklawn Park before.  That being said, his only career victory was a maiden race against weak competition.

4 – The Factor, 7/5

The Arkansas Derby favorite has won 3 straight races and has beaten some quality competition in the Rebel Stakes and the San Vicente.  I’m still a bit worried that this speed horse will tire out at this distance, but he just keeps putting horses in his rear view.  The only faster Rebel Stakes finishing time in the last 20 years was run by Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness Stakes winner Smarty Jones.

5 – Brethren, 10/1

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver’s half-brother had lots of momentum going for him after taking 1st in the Sam F. Davis, but many are not counting Brethren out after he ran 3rd in a weak Tampa Bay Derby field.  Looking back, Brethren hasn’t beaten any top competition, but Super Saver also took 3rd in the Tampa Bay Derby so you never know.

6 – Sway Away, 6/1

I keep expecting Sway Away to show improvement but he came up empty in the Rebel Stakes and still has no career wins.  He has Seattle Slew and Afleet Alex on either side of his bloodlines and you have to figure this horse will begin to show the potential at some point.  We know The Factor will make for a speedy pace, and a horse like Sway Away and his come-from-behind style are theoretically perfect for an upset.

7 – Truman’s Commander, 10/1

He’s coming off a 1-mile maiden breaking effort at Oaklawn Park but the level of competition isn’t high and that was his 4th attempt to break maiden.  Is this a case of a horse showing late improvement or simply a good horse that finally got a pace to his liking?  I don’t see him competing despite what the odds makers are suggesting with these odds.

8 – Dance City, 15/1

He’s won his last two races and his worst career finish is 2nd place with all 3 on dirt at a mile or longer.  Although he likely doesn’t have the run to cover this longer distance, Dance City is a very important runner in the Arkansas Derby.  He’s early speed and could force The Factor into setting a blistering pace which would tire him out as the race goes on.

9 – Archarcharch, 12/1

The winner of the Southwest Stakes and the Sugar Bowl, Archarcharch has beaten some strong horses but also lost to horses he should have easily beaten.  He’s coming off a 3rd place finish in the Rebel Stakes and I think he’ll handle the Arkansas Derby distance just fine.  I’m just not sure he’s as good as some of the other entries.

10 – J P’s Gusto, 15/1

I have no clue what this horse will do in the Arkansas Derby.  He won 4 of his first 5 career races against very good competition but then hasn’t finished better than 2nd in his last 5.  He has a ton of experience but his longest career victory is at a mile even and I’m almost wondering if he’d be better off as a sprinter.  He simply hasn’t taken that next step since being stretched out and he’s had 4 tries to run at longer than a mile.

11 – J W Blue, 30/1

A 5th place finish in the Rebel Stakes has many wondering if this horse belongs with the other top-end runners in the Arkansas Derby field.  He’s won at longer than a mile at Oaklawn Park before and won’t have any problems with the distance.  Simply put, J W Blue might simply be in over his head against this level of competition.

12 – Saratoga Red, 30/1

His 4th place finish in the Rebel Stakes was a bit of a surprise and the run showed potential.  Both of his career races have been a mile or longer at Oaklawn Park and if there is a horse that comes out of nowhere to hit the board, this is the one I’d choose.

Arkansas Derby Predictions:

1 – Nehro

2 – Sway Away

3 – Elite Alex