Belmont Stakes: Bet This 30/1 Underdog

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 07 June 2011 19:45

An unheralded horse in the 2011 Belmont Stakes field could feasibly pull off the huge upset.

Although online sportsbooks are letting horse bettors lock in 30/1 odds on Monzon to win the 2011 Belmont Stakes, this lesser-known horse with the Maryland connections is definitely one to watch out for on the May 11th date of the last leg of the Triple Crown races this year.  Many horse racing bettors will look at this horse and cross him off their list of potential wagering opportunities after noticing he’s coming off a 6th place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes and a 5th place finish in the Sam F. Davis, but there is more than meets the eye upon closer inspection.

We’ll start with pedigree, as Monzon is sired by 1995 Belmont Stakes winner Thunder Gulch.  Although Monzon’s career up to date has been a bit spotty, it is worth noting that it took Thunder Gulch roughly 6 races before he became a superstar that nearly won the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby before coming in 3rd in the Preakness Stakes.  Like his sire, Monzon will enjoy the late maturation, and his pedigree suggests that the 1.5 miles in the Belmont won’t be an issue at all.

Next, let’s look at those 2 poor races and some of the other previous ones that Monzon has ran in.  He looked amazing in the Count Fleet in early January of this year, and has won twice at a mile or longer.  The Count Fleet win was his very first career race on dirt, and he was then shipped out to Florida for the Sam F. Davis.  Monzon simply didn’t take to the track surface, and it was then decided that the promising 3-year-old would be rested up to prep for the Belmont Stakes.  Although Monzon finished 6th in the Peter Pan Stakes last time out, the race was simply looked at as a prep off a long layoff to set this big underdog up for a large improvement in top form at Belmont Park.

When you throw out the Sam F. Davis run as just an off performance on a new track, and realize that Monzon was just getting some work in during the Peter Pan Stakes, it’s much easier to see the potential here.  The pedigree suggests a late start to the career, and this is one of the few horses in the field that has been specifically pointed to the Belmont Stakes’ distance.  He’s put in the prep work and should be one of the freshest horses in the field while some of the more touted names could be on heavy legs.  Don’t just toss this guy because of his past results, because there are numerous underlying factors surrounding this entry that could lead to a big run that shocks the horse racing world.