Florida Derby Picks - Winner and Trifecta Box

Written by Jake Thompson
Sunday, 03 April 2011 18:39

Florida Derby picks will outline a winner and a trifecta box.

Gulfstream Park will play host to 8 entries in the 2011 Florida Derby, and there are numerous horses in this field that are considered to be Kentucky Derby contenders if they can produce a strong showing here.  Post time of the Florida Derby is set for 5:42 PM ET and the 8 horses will be going 9 furlongs on the dirt.  Our Florida Derby picks will outline our favorite bet on the winner, as well as a trifecta box that has a nice chance of winning money.

2011 Florida Derby Post Positions and Odds:

1 – Soldat, 9/5

2 – To Honor And Serve, 4/1

3 – Arch Traveler, 20/1

4 – Bowman’s Causeway, 20/1

5 – Shackleford, 20/1

6 – Stay Thirsty, 8/1

7 – Dialed In, 2/1

8 – Flashpoint, 6/1

2011 Florida Derby Tips and Information:

Soldat – The current Florida Derby wagering favorite beat out a talented field in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and has ran at this distance in each of his last two races (both victories).  This horse has went wire-to-wire in the past but there’s a ton of other early speed and I wonder if we’ll see him press the pace today.

To Honor And Serve – Although he came up behind Soldat in the Fountain of Youth, I’m not sleeping on this horse because that race was intended to be one that simply gets the horse back into shape.  To Honor And Serve flattened out at the end but should be in better shape to catch the leaders this time around.

Arch Traveler – Had no problem winning a dirt allowance at this distance last time out, but the winning times and weaker competition faced makes me question whether or not he’ll be able to stick with this extremely talented field.

Bowman’s Causeway – This underdog has the pedigree to run this distance on dirt, but recent results (3rd in a 1 mile allowance, 4th in the Fountain of Youth) make me question whether the potential will be realized in time for the Kentucky Derby.  A jump up is possible, but I don’t see this horse as the Florida Derby winner.  I’m also not sure the fast track conditions at Gulfstream Park will help this stalker.

Shackleford – This entry took 5th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and I didn’t see anything that makes me think he’ll be able to handle another fast pace scenario in the Florida Derby.  He ran fast at this distance during an allowance, but I don’t think he’ll be able to keep up with the speed.

Stay Thirsty – He took 1st in the Gotham Stakes in a race that his trainers are saying was problem marred.  Stay Thirsty gets blinkers for the first time today and the pedigree suggests he’ll get stronger with more distance.  This will be his longest career race and I think he’s primed for a big effort in the Florida Derby.

Dialed In – Winner of the Holy Bull Stakes came in 2nd last time out in a Gulfstream Park allowance race at the Florida Derby distance.  Dialed In has shown an incredible ability to come from way back on the back stretch and the early speed could definitely set us up for a big closer to break through and claim victory.

Flashpoint – This is another early speed horse that is fresh off a win in the 7-furlong Hutcheson Stakes.  Flashpoint has never ran a race longer than that distance, and, despite victories in both career races, I’m hesitant to bet on a speedster that is really getting stretched out.  The level of competition that this horse has gone up against is overly impressive, and it is very possible that the other more-tested speed could tire him out.

2011 Florida Derby Picks – Winner and Trifecta Box:

1 – Stay Thirsty

2 – Dialed In

3 – To Honor and Serve

Stay Thirsty needs this win for Kentucky Derby consideration and I could definitely see some of the trainers of the more accomplished horses holding back a bit in the Florida Derby.  Dialed In should come thundering down the stretch but I think Stay Thirsty gets it by a nose.  To Honor and Serve is incredibly undervalued and I expect him to get back on the right side of things with a big run.