Handicapping a Wide-Open Kentucky Derby Field

Written by Roger Mayflower
Thursday, 05 May 2011 09:30

Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Field requires knowledge, patience and eye for details.

After this year's series of Derby prep races, most of which were unimpressive, and the ones that were had the horse that win them go down to injury, most expert observers including myself consider this the most perplexing field ever assembled for the Run for the Roses.  Sorting through confusing information is the key to picking a winner on the first Saturday in May.  Here is a rundown on some of the likely starters for the 137th edition of the Kentucky Derby.

Shackleford – game 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby where he ran on the front and put away the other early speed in To Honor and Serve and Soldat, narrowly missing holding off Dialed In by a head.  He won his maiden over the Churchill Downs surface in his maiden last year, so he is proven over the surface.  With odds that are likely to be 15-1 or higher, he could be a very inviting value play.  Strongly consider.

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Stay Thirsty – ran a stinker in the Florida Derby with no excuses after climbing his way up the ladder by winning the Gotham at Aqueduct.  His high Beyer Speed figure of 89 is not even close to what it will take to win the Derby.  Regal breeding out of Bernardini makes him eligible to run all day long.  Still, would have to take a giant step forward off a horrible race.  Can't see it happening.

Derby Kitten – snuck in the race at the last minute due to the defection of Toby's Corner.  Last seen running a close 2nd in the Grade II Lexington at Keeneland.  Improving Beyer Speed figures are an encouraging sign.  On the not so bright side, his lone dirt start was beyond dismal, and runners coming over from the poly track at Keeneland have made no mark on the Derby since the track switched over from dirt.  Likely 50-1 shot and deservedly so.

Soldat – Fountain of Youth winner decided not to show up in the Florida Derby while trying to stalk the early pace, and hated having dirt thrown in his face.  His early speed which was earlier thought to be a detriment may however work to his advantage with the defection of several early speed types such as The Factor and J.P.'s Gusto.  Has shown that he relishes running in the slop, and with rain forecast for Saturday, he may get a chance to prove it again.  Interesting.

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Brilliant Speed – last seen in the Blue Grass at Keeneland where he showed a brilliant late turn of foot to capture the race.  Yet another with poor dirt form that will make him a likely long-shot.  Consider as an underlay in your exotics, and maybe a win bet if his odds soar over 20-1.

Twice the Appeal – tries to take the Mine That Bird route of Sunland Derby to the Run for the Roses.  Unlike Mine That Bird, Twice the Appeal won the race over heavily favored Astrology.  The dark bay 3 year-old son of Successful Appeal also has one other distinct advantage that Mine That Bird had, jockey Calvin Borel at the reigns, who has won 3 out of the last 4 Derbies.  The 89 last race Beyer Speed figure he earned would make him a 50-1 longshot in almost any other Derby year, but with likely favorite's Dialed In only running to a 94 Beyer last out and Borel in the irons, look for his odds to drop from the morning line.  If he get a good post position, you can almost assure yourself that Borel will give him a clean and efficient trip.  Intriguing.

Decisive Moment – this dark bay 3 year-old sired by With Distinction is a consistent sort of fellow.  He's proven he likes the slop at Churchill Downs when he drilled a 47.40 4-furlong workout on April 17th.  He was last seen at the Grade III Spiral at Turfway where he ran a credible 2nd earning an 88 Beyer Speed figure on the poly track.  Does not have the pedigree top or bottom to get the classic distances, but if he gets a favorable post and a clean trip he probably has as good of a chance as any of the others, especially if the early speed is drawn wide of him.  But take note of his great-great grand-sire, Secretariat, who most certainly could get the classic distances and a helluva lot more.  At 50-1 or over, why not give it a short dollar try?  If he channels his great-great grandaddy he could come home a winner on the first Saturday in May.

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