Kentucky Derby Contenders & Tips

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 19 April 2011 18:15

Let’s look at the changes to the top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders.

Although Dialed In remains as the current favorite amongst 2011 Kentucky Derby contenders, the top 5 has been shaken up a bit after last weekend’s Arkansas Derby.  The top 5 looks quite a bit different than it did just a week ago and new entries Archarcharch and Nehro make for some potentially interesting Kentucky Derby wagers.  We’ll look at the top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders according to online sportsbooks and see if we can’t gain some insight into a nice bet to make.

Dialed In – 3/1

It’s been a bit of an up-and-down year for your current Kentucky favorite.  He looked incredible in his come-from-behind win in the Holy Bull Stakes before losing an allowance race to stable mate Equestrio in his next run.  Dialed In rebounded to beat a very strong field in the Florida Derby and this big closer will be in the thick of things if he doesn’t get caught in traffic during his Kentucky Derby run.  His pedigree suggests the distance and dirt surface won’t be issues, but as in any Kentucky Derby it’s not easy to come from the back all the way to the front with such a large field.

Uncle Mo – 5/1

The former massive Kentucky Derby favorite has been taking his wagering lumps since running 3rd in the Wood memorial a week or two ago.  Uncle Mo burst onto the scene with a great run in the Champage Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before going on to win the Timely Writer.  Although you can never count out a horse of this stature, it is worth noting that Uncle Mo hasn’t ran against as strong of fields as some of the other potential Kentucky Derby contenders.  All that being said, Todd Pletcher knows what he has in Uncle Mo and the Wood Memorial run was very flawed.  I’m open to the possibility that Pletcher didn’t go all out in an effort to make sure Uncle Mo is at full strength on the day of the Kentucky Derby.

The Factor – 8/1

Many bettors out there are going to toss The Factor after his disappointing 7th place finish in the Arkansas Derby, but there are a few reasons to think that he can still win the Kentucky Derby.  Two horses committed race suicide in the Arkansas Derby by trying to set blistering paces which affected the speed of The Factor, and I can’t see any entries in the Kentucky Derby taking similar dives.  This guy dusted the fields in the Rebel Stakes and the San Vicente, and this pedigree suggests the Kentucky Derby distance won’t be a problem.  He’ll be one of the top horses as long as there isn’t a ton of early speed in the Derby.

Archarcharch – 10/1

Although Archarcharch won the Arkansas Derby, he would have likely lost the race to Nehro had the distance been equal to that of the Kentucky Derby.  This guy has also won the Sugar Bowl and the Southwest Stakes but has a 4th place finish in the Smarty Jones and a 3rd place finish in the Rebel Stakes sandwiched in between the winning runs.  Consistency is a question mark but this horse seems like a good bet to help your superfecta in the Kentucky Derby.

Nehro – 10/1

I recommended betting on this guy at close to 50/1 odds before the Arkansas Derby, and his 2nd place finish has swayed the line in a big way.  Nehro also took 2nd in the Louisiana Derby and is showing lots of improvement each time out.  The pedigree suggests this horse will love the dirt and distance at Churchill Downs and I like Nehro’s ability to close with authority as well as his ability to rate when needed.  He’s still my personal favorite to get the roses around on his neck on Derby day.

Other Kentucky Derby Contenders:

Mucho Macho Man – 11/1

Soldat – 12/1

Toby’s Corner – 12/1

Midnight Interlude – 16/1

Stay Thirsty – 16/1

Jaycito – 20/1

Master Of Hounds – 20/1

Shackleford – 20/1

Pants On Fire – 20/1

Animal Kingdom – 22/1

Brethren – 25/1

Sway Away – 25/1

Santiva – 25/1

Awesome Patriot – 25/1

Twice The Appeal – 25/1

Positive Response – 33/1

Gourmet Dinner – 33/1

Comma To The Top – 33/1

Astrology – 33/1

Black N Beauty – 33/1

Silver Medallion – 33/1

Anthony’s Cross – 40/1

J P’s Gusto – 40/1

Curlinello – 40/1

Sheriff Cogburn – 50/1

Smash – 50/1

Sovereign Default – 66/1