Kentucky Derby Handicapping 101

Written by Roger Mayflower
Sunday, 10 April 2011 11:00

Picking a winner the Kentucky Derby is the most difficult handicapping task in North American thoroughbred horse racing.

Picking a winner the Kentucky Derby is the most difficult handicapping task in North American thoroughbred horse racing.  However; there are a few tried and true rules of thumb that can help you narrow the field and possibly walk away from the track with pockets full of cash on the first Saturday in May.

For years since the last Triple Crown winner in 1978, being a favorite in the Kentucky Derby almost assured the horse in question was going to lose the race.  From 1980 until 2000, the favorites lost each and every year.  The past decade has seen that trend reversed with favorites Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000, Smarty Jones in 2004, Street Sense in 2007, and Big Brown in 2008 come home a winner as a favorite in the race.  Super Saver splashed home a winner as a lukewarm 7-1 favorite in 2010.  But even with this recent trend, the favorites still batted less than .500 during the decade, making backing a Kentucky Derby favorite a losing proposition.

There are several good reasons the favorites disappoint on such a regular basis.  Most all of the 3 year-olds running with very few exceptions are attempting 10 furlongs for the very first time, so an in-depth study of pedigree should be done to look for horses that are bred with the classic distances in mind and not simply speed.   One wise guy tactic is scour the major preps for horses who finished their races full of run, even though they may not have won the race.  In 2010, trainer Nick Zito's Ice House was a logical choice for any number of straight and exotic wagers due to the fact he won the Florida Derby with a strong late rush.  He may have run the best race of any horse in 2010 Derby when he came rolling in the last 1/16 of a mile to finish 2nd to Super Saver.

Another factor that has a dramatic effect on a horse's chances is post position.  With a 20 horse field, the prospects of any given horse having a nightmare trip are multiplied exponentially.  Only two horses in recent memory have overcome an extreme outside post to win, Smarty Jones out of the 15 hole in 2004, and Big Brown out of the 20 hole in 2008.  Both horses had excellent early tactical speed to avoid the early bottleneck on the first turn and win the race.  The inside posts can be just as imposing, as last year's co-favorite Lookin' at Lucky was repeatedly slammed into the inner rail after breaking from post 1, effectively robbing him of any chance to win the race.

Another factor that has had a direct impact on the last two Run for the Roses is track condition.  In 2009, 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird came home hugging the rail to steal the race over a sloppy track.  While he ran admirably in the next two Triple Crown races, he never won another race and was retired after running a clunker in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Mile.  Super Saver stalked a brisk pace over a sloppy track and assumed command in the stretch to win the 2010 addition of the Kentucky Derby.  He never won another race and has been retired to stud.  Use the Tomlinson Ratings in the Daily Racing Form to determine which horse has a pedigree with proven ability in the slop.