Kentucky Derby Odds - Betting Advice

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 05 May 2011 22:02

Let’s check out the 2011 Kentucky Derby odds and figure out which horses get bet big on race day.

Churchill Downs has released morning line odds for the 2011 Kentucky Derby and we wanted to take a second to breakdown the numbers and figure out which horses are likely to be heavily bet and which horses you should wait until post time to put money on.  The good thing about the internet is that there are online sportsbooks that allow you to lock in a certain price ahead of time, thereby allowing you to not be subjected to unknown odds at the track.

Betting on the Kentucky Derby usually means that you put down a certain amount on a horse you like and, even if the odds were 10/1 when you bet, you might only get 3/1 if the public plunks down a ton of money and the number drops before the race starts.  By betting online, you can successfully avoid the unknown factor of your payout by guaranteeing a price you like that won’t change.  It’s the smart way to bet on the Kentucky Derby and one I’d recommend my readers employ for all of the 2011 Triple Crown races.

With that being said, there are some horses that will have better odds than are currently available if you bet at the track and use that unknown factor to your advantage.  We’ll do our best to outline what horses to bet online at this time and which of the entries you might be better suited to wait on before placing your wager.  Predicting how much money is put on each of these horses isn’t an exact science but we’ll do our best to make sure that everyone maximizes their Kentucky Derby payout to the best of their abilities.

2011 Kentucky Derby Track Odds and Post Positions

1 – Archarcharch – 10/1

2 – Brilliant Speed – 30/1

3 – Twice the Appeal – 20/1

4 – Stay Thirsty – 20/1

5 – Decisive Moment – 30/1

6 – Comma to the Top – 30/1

7 – Pants on Fire – 20/1

8 – Dialed In – 4/1

9 – Derby Kitten – 30/1

10 – Twinspired – 30/1

11 – Master of Hounds – 30/1

12 – Santiva – 30/1

13 – Mucho Macho Man – 30/1

14 – Shackleford – 12/1

15 – Midnight Interlude – 10/1

16 – Animal Kingdom – 30/1

17 – Soldat – 12/1

18 – Uncle Mo – 9/2

19 – Nehro – 6/1

20 – Watch Me Go – 50/1

Bet Now:

Twice the Appeal – I’d take the 20/1 odds currently offered now because everyone in the world is going to bet on a horse ridden by Calvin Borel in the Kentucky Derby.  Twice the Appeal drew a very nice spot in the starting gate and the Borel factor could have this one down to around 10/1 at post time.

Dialed In – It might be weird to see the race favorite in this category, but I just don’t see how his number gets any more profitable.  Uncle Mo’s connections are discussing bowing out of the Derby, and it will only lower the payout on Dialed In if it happens.

Bet Later:

Archarcharch – People will be scared off by the inside post position and in my mind they should be afraid.  It’s tough to win the Kentucky Derby from that inside spot with a 20-horse field, and I could see the odds on this horse going up as bettors take other entries.

Watch Me Go – The race long shot is currently at 50/1 odds and is likely to be closer to 99/1 when post time at Churchill Downs rolls around.  This horse has no shot and the far outside spot in the starting gate will have only the most ambitious of underdog bettors putting money on Watch Me Go.