Kentucky Derby Picks: Winner and Trifecta

Written by Jake Thompson
Saturday, 07 May 2011 18:30

Our Kentucky Derby betting picks are in and we have a winner and a trifecta.

The decision on who to bet in the 2011 Kentucky Derby wasn’t an easy one, but after handicapping all of the involved factors we feel that our selections will be correct.  While most other websites only choose a winner, we went above and beyond to give our readers a trifecta box bet as well.  We nailed the perfect trifecta in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic and we hope our Kentucky Derby wager can replicate that success.

Our 2011 Kentucky Derby picks have figured in the betting odds, weather, post positions, and likely pace scenario.  We’ve incorporated past performances, Beyer speed figures, and sheer outright potential into the equation as well.  With rain beginning to fall at Churchill Downs, the weather plays a bigger part in deciding the winner and the trifecta.  With all that said, let’s get on to how I feel the 1st leg of the 2011 Triple Crown will be decided.

Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment and Shackleford are likely to battle it out for the early lead while Soldat and others stalk the quick pace.  Normally a quick pace sets up big closers like Dialed In, Animal Kingdom, and Brilliant Speed, but there is so much traffic in the 19-horse Kentucky Derby that I wouldn’t count on any of those 3 winning the race.  Instead I’m looking at stalkers and mid-pack runners that have proven they can run in these conditions, and we have some of the best of the best as our Kentucky Derby picks.

Nehro has came from way back but has also proven that he can rate and stalk the pace and he’ll definitely be included in our trifecta despite the fact that he drew a poor spot in the post positions draw.  Soldat is fresh off a rough race but he loves the sloppy track and also should be right behind the pace setters.  Dialed In is the best horse in the field and likely to win the Preakness or Belmont Stakes, but I still worry about all the horses he’ll have to navigate around when he makes his big move on the final turn.

Ultimately I believe that Nehro is the best horse in the field and he’ll edge out Soldat by a nose en route to winning the 2011 Kentucky Derby.  Dialed In will have a monster run at the end but the issues he encounters when making it will lead to him finishing 2nd or 3rd instead of taking out the other entries like he would in a race that had fewer entries.  Nehro has finished 2nd in his last two races but was flying at the end of both and the extra distance at the Kentucky Derby will finally allow him to pass the other horses and take home a monster win.

2011 Kentucky Derby Picks – Winner and Trifecta:

1 – Nehro

2 – Soldat

3 – Dialed In