Kentucky Derby: Toby's Corner Out, Derby Kitten In

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 03 May 2011 23:53

One of the Kentucky Derby favorites has to pull out with an injury.

Toby’s Corner pulled a large upset to win the Wood Memorial over potential 2011 Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo, but it now appears that a run for the roses won’t be in the cards for the horse sired by Bellamy Road.  While putting in the final serious work before shipping to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby, Toby’s Corner started to show signs that there may be problems with his left hind leg.  Additional tests are not able to determine a specific injury but there was enough concern to scratch the horse from the list of potential Kentucky Derby entries.

The departure left an opening in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby lineup that will be filled by the opportunistically-named Derby Kitten who was next up in terms of graded earnings that determine hopefuls for the first leg of the Triple Crown.  Sired by Kitten’s Joy and a full half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby hopeful William’s Kitten, Derby Kitten is fresh off a win in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes and also has two 2nd place finishes in graded stakes races.

The good news for Derby Kitten is that his pedigree suggests the Kentucky Derby distance won’t be a problem, and this 3-year-old has ran every single one of his 9 career races at a mile or longer.  The bad news is that his pedigree suggests he’s a turf horse and Derby Kitten finished 7th in his only career race on real dirt.  The Coolmore Lexington Stakes run was on a synthetic surface but every other career start outside of the ones we mentioned has been on turf.  William’s Kitten also started out on turf and did manage to claim 2nd on the Churchill Downs’ dirt in the 2009 Kentucky Jockey Club while having success on the surface before the wheels fell off in 2011.

Derby Kitten’s racing style has shown that he likes to hang back a bit before making his move coming down the stretch.  I don’t get the impression that he’s a particularly deep closer like Kentucky Derby contender Dialed In, but William’s Kitten has shown he’ll have plenty left in the gas tank if he hangs back 3-4 lengths before bunching up with the field around the end of the final turn.  The 1:42:03 he covered the 1 1/16 miles in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes is actually faster than many other Kentucky Derby contenders have ran at the same distance.

It’s tough to figure out what odds you’ll likely see on Derby Kitten until the post positions come out, but I’d expect something in the 40-1 range would be about right.  Despite not having much experience on the surface, I could see Derby Kitten proving a spoiler to exotics if the starting spot in the gate is to his liking.  I think these mid-pack horses are going to have plenty of success in the 2011 Kentucky Derby and a 3rd or 4th place finish could be in the cards for the newest Kentucky Derby entry.  Stay posted for post positions and we’ll give you a better idea of what to expect from all of the Kentucky Derby contenders at that time.

The other 19 horses expected to be in the 2011 Kentucky Derby field include Animal Kingdom, Archarcharch, Brilliant Speed, Comma to the Top, Decisive Moment, Dialed In, Master of Hounds, Midnight Interlude, Mucho Macho Man, Nehro, Pants on Fire, Santiva, Shackleford, Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Twice the Appeal, Twinspired, Uncle Mo, and Watch Me Go.