MLS - Major League Soccer Picks explained

Written by Sports Desk
Thursday, 17 March 2011 12:47

Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey, and Jozy Altidore made a big splash at the World Cup and the betting public was left wanting more when the US team’s run came to an end.  The sport of Major League Soccer has really taken off ever since the United States’ showing in the 2010 World Cup, yet many sports bettors are still extremely confused about how to make MLS picks.

It just so happens that Donovan plays for Major League Soccer’s top team – the Los Angeles Galaxy – and he’s far from the only star on the squad.  Former Premier League standout David Beckham is also on the squad while the MLS leading-scorer, Edson Buddle, is another Galaxy player to watch.

The problem with most bettors trying their hand at MLS picks is the fact that the betting odds are completely different from what they are used to in other sports.  Instead of a 2-sided line like in the NFL, MLB, NBA, and other sports, soccer bettors are faced with the challenge of deciphering the correct side from a 3-way line when making MLS picks.

Odds for this sport offer both sides as a viable option, but then they also offer the possibility of a draw which confuses many potential wagering enthusiasts.  An example set of odds to use for figuring out how to make MLS picks is listed below:

Los Angeles Galaxy -200

Columbus Crew +450

Draw +180

Now, that’s not the only way you can make your MLS picks.  Thanks to online sportsbooks, many are now offering lines comparable to mainstream sports where the draw is a refund for all bettors, regardless of what side you wagered on.  The somewhat Americanized version of the odds above might read like:

Los Angeles Galaxy -320

Columbus Crew +280

Now, you can go well beyond just making Major League Soccer picks on the potential winner because sportsbooks are also offering betting odds on the total and various prop bets.  Over or under 2.5 goals is the standard number for a Major League Soccer match and is fairly simple to figure out how to win or lose that bet.

Making MLS picks on prop bets have been the most beneficial to my bottom line and  it seems like there are more and more options for MLS picks available every time I take a look at my sportsbook.  Options for making MLS picks in this way include getting great odds by nailing the final score (Galaxy at 3-1 +800, for instance), predicting the first goal scorer of any game, and predicting if a player scores a goal at any point in the game.  Those last two make for some interesting MLS picks because of the fact that you can get some lesser-known players at 50/1 odds that could pay off in a big way.

Regardless of the way you prefer to make your MLS picks, I hope that I’ve explained some of the confusing problems that many new bettors are experiencing.  Soccer is a bit different to bet but I’ve found it to be one of the most profitable sports in the entire world to bet on.  I hope that you will as well when making your MLS picks.

Getting the best value on your MLS picks can be tricky, but there are some easy guidelines to follow if you want to improve your handicapping. Here are just a few of the things you need to look out for in order to get the best value for your MLS picks in the future.

Unlike other sports, it’s not easy to read line movement on Major League Soccer simply because there just isn’t as large of a market when making MLS picks.  In other sports, teams like the New York Yankees, Dallas Cowboys, and Los Angeles Lakers are good bets to receive a ton of public betting money, and you can use that information to your advantage in order to get the best odds available.  It’s much more difficult when making MLS picks because, besides the Los Angeles Galaxy, there really aren’t any teams that receive overwhelming support.

You’ll have to dig a little bit deeper in Major League Soccer if you want to get the best value in your MLS picks.  Since the sport isn’t as widely covered as the main American sports, you won’t get news updates as quickly.  That equates to a slower moving line on MLS picks when an injury occurs or a team illness occurs.  Monitor sports news sites like ESPN and CBS Sports for key injury information, and you are likely to get a bet in before the odds adjust themselves.  Something like this would never happen in the NBA, NFL, or MLB.

Another way to get a great value with your MLS picks is to handicap how a team is playing recently.  I find Major League Soccer outcomes hinge on how teams are playing in their last few contests more than in other sports.  When a Major League Soccer squad figures out how to make their offense hum, it usually lasts for a while until other teams find out the best way to stop them.  Monitor shots and shots on goal in recent matches to get a feel for how a team is performing before making your MLS picks.

In addition to that, you can also take advantage of a team that is getting ready to break out, or may be going into a midseason lull when making MLS picks.  Shots and shots on goal are a very nice indicator of goals scored, but it doesn’t always work out perfectly.  For instance, suppose the Columbus Crew get 6 shots on goal a game and 22 shots total.  That’s an extremely high number in Major League Soccer, and we’ll also say in our example they have scored a total of 3 goals in their last 5 contests despite averaging those numbers.  Even though the production hasn’t equated into goals, you can rest assured it will.  A bet on the Crew and the over might be a good idea in their next few contests, and the odds on your MLS picks are not likely to be adjusted correctly because of the poor bottom line.

Similarly, if the Crew have scored 6 goals in their last 3 games but are averaging just 2 shots on goal a game and 4 shots total, you can chalk it up to their offense getting somewhat lucky.  Something is wrong if a team is only getting that few scoring chances, and you can count on a slowdown happening at some point.  You need to go beyond the bottom line statistic of goals scored and use the wealth of information to your advantage if you plan on getting the best value when making MLS picks.