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Friday MLB Best Bet: Mariners vs. Angels
Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 05 August 2011 15:27
Friday’s MLB best bet will be in the late game between the Mariners and the Angels.
We are going for 7 straight wins in our MLB best bet series, and we’ve selected the 10:05 PM ET clash between the Los Angeles Angels (61-51) and the Seattle Mariners (48-62) as the game to extend the streak. Online sportsbooks have the home-team Angels as heavy betting favorites and you’ll have to lay -255 odds if you choose to go with Los Angeles. Despite the high odds, close to 75% of tracked MLB bettors are taking the favorite here and aren’t scared one bit by the lowly Mariners.
The Angels have one of the best pitchers in the game going tonight in Jered Weaver (14-5, 0.94 WHIP, 1.88 ERA). Seattle has only won once in 9 tries against Weaver and have scored just 4 earned runs over 24 innings against the All-Star this season. The good news for the Mariners is that they are finally hitting (.264 over their last 10 games), but first baseman Justin Smoak (.221, 12 home runs) is listed as doubtful with a bruised left thumb. If Seattle hopes to win this game, it’s not likely going to be in a high-scoring affair.
Seattle will counter with left-hander Jason Vargas (6-10, 1.29 WHIP, 4.19 ERA). Vargas has been pitching poor as of late but has only given up 15 earned runs over 8 career starts against the Angels. Los Angeles is in a huge offensive slump right now and has batted just .220 over their last 10 games. The home team does hit lefties well but Vargas has won 2 of his 3 career starts in Los Angeles while giving up only 4 earned runs in the process. The Angels appear likely to generate a couple runs but I wouldn’t count on many more than that.
A big weakness for the Mariners is their faulty bullpen (1.36 WHIP, 4.01 ERA), but Vargas is a guy that goes deep into games when he is pitching well. That will help keep the bullpen from giving up runs and this game figures to be low-scoring and close in the later innings. Although a play on the Mariners makes some sense, ultimately the best bet here is to go with the under at 6.5 runs. It’s a low total but I just don’t see either team scoring more than 2-3 at most.
Mariners 2
Angels 3