Friday MLB Best Bet: Red Sox vs. Mariners

Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 12 August 2011 03:49

We are going for 14 in a row with the Friday MLB best bet between the Red Sox and the Mariners.

The 10:10 PM ET late game between the Seattle Mariners (50-66) and the Boston Red Sox (72-44) will be our Friday MLB best bet, and we are hoping to extend that massive winning streak just a little bit more.  Online sportsbooks have the road-team Boston Red Sox as -145 betting favorites with the total set at 8 runs.  The Red Sox have won 9 of the last 12 head-to-head meetings with the Mariners, including the last 4 straight.

Right-hander John Lackey (10-8, 1.54 WHIP, 6.14 ERA) draws the start for the Red Sox, and this guy has been tough to read.  He’s had to deal with his share of personal issues this season and started out getting rocked in nearly every start.  Recently he looked like he had turned the corner but his last 3 starts have yielded a 1.53 WHIP and a 5.40 ERA, making him seem all too hittable again.  Lackey has allowed just 3 earned runs in the 13.0 innings he’s pitched against Seattle this season and the Mariners have one of the worst offenses in the league.  They have showed a bit of life lately but I still won’t count on Seattle to score more than a few runs in any game.

Opposing Lackey will be right-hander Blake Beavan (3-2, 1.09 WHIP, 2.83 ERA), a former prospect who has looked good this season.  Although I still don’t trust the 6’7” pitcher to be strong the rest of the season, he’s put his team in a position to win in every one of his 6 starts this year.  Beavan allowed 3 earned runs on 9 hits over 6.2 innings against Boston earlier this season and will try to replicate the success he had at Fenway Park in this clash.  The Red Sox offense has cooled off a bit lately but still have managed a .273 average over their last 10 games.

Boston’s bullpen (1.12 WHIP, 3.24 ERA) still has moments where they struggle to get outs, but Seattle’s relief pitchers (1.43 WHIP, 4.14 ERA) have proven to be much more unreliable.  I believe that both units will see extended action here with neither starter going deep into the game, so that makes Boston’s edge all that much more important.

Lackey is not the best pitcher in the world right now but he’s going against a poor offense.  I love the fact that Lackey has won all 4 of his career starts in Seattle and he’s allowed just 2 earned runs total during those games.  Beavan has been a nice surprise but he’s been pitching over his head and I expect Boston to fare much better against him in their second try.  They’ve seen his pitches and should be much better suited to take advantage of his fairly average stuff.  I’ve never been a fan of betting on road favorites of this size but the situation calls for a wager and we’ll go with the Red Sox to extend our streak to 14 straight.

Red Sox 5

Mariners 3