Monday MLB Best Bet: Nationals vs. Astros

Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 18 July 2011 17:19

We’ll try to make it 3 in a row with our MLB best bet for Monday between the Nationals and the Astros.

Although the Washington Nationals (47-48) are on the road and sport a poor 19-30 record away from home, the online sportsbooks still have them listed as a -110 betting favorite for today’s 8:05 PM ET game against the Houston Astros (31-64).  Houston has managed just a 15-35 mark at Minute Maid Park this year and has lost the last 3 head-to-head meetings with the Nationals.  We’ll take a look at how both National League squads are playing and then let everyone know the best bet to make in this potentially profitable clash.

The Astros’ bullpen has been a bit iffy all season long (1.37 WHIP, 4.12 ERA) and it is important for this team to get quality innings out of their starting pitchers if they want to get the victory.  Houston will throw top-prospect Jordan Lyles (0-4, 1.38 WHIP, 4.40 ERA) in this one and the right-hander will be helped by the fact that Washington is hitting just .217 on the road this year.  Lyles has never faced the Astros and I believe that the 20-year-old is a better pitcher than his statistical line indicates.  He’s drawn some hard-hitting squads lately and I believe he’ll put in 6 or 7 quality innings against Washington.

Right-hander Jason Marquis (7-4, 1.45 WHIP, 4.05 ERA) will oppose Lyles and the veteran starter has put up an 8.03 ERA over his last 3 starts.  The good news for the Nationals is that Houston has batted just .241 over their last 10 games and has some big holes in their lineup that sluggers like outfielders Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee can’t mask.  Marquis has faced the Astros quite a bit over his career and most recently allowed just 2 earned runs off 7 hits and 1 walk over 6.0 innings.  Although he’ll keep his team in the game, Marquis is unlikely to throw dominant innings or go deep into games, making Washington’s strong bullpen (1.18 WHIP, 3.52 ERA) that much more important.

Ultimately I have to believe that Houston has a better chance of winning this game, and the bet is made even stronger by the fact that over 70% of tracked sports bettors are taking the Nationals.  It never hurts to fade the general public when looking for a winner and Lyles has a better chance for success here.  Although the Houston bullpen is scary and could blow this game, I don’t think you can go wrong by taking the home team with the better starting pitcher at underdog MLB odds.

Nationals 3

Astros 4