Monday MLB Best Bet: Pirates vs. Giants

Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 08 August 2011 20:54

We are going for 10 wins in a row in the Monday MLB best bet between the Pirates and the Giants.

The surprising Pittsburgh Pirates (54-59) will look to take out the San Francisco Giants (63-52) in this 10:15 PM ET game, and we’ve selected the clash as our MLB best bet for Monday.  We’ve won our MLB best bet the last 9 times out and will look to extend the winning streak to double digits with our pick here.  Online sportsbooks have the home-team Giants as the large -178 betting favorites, and close to 80% of tracked MLB bettors are favoring San Francisco.

The Pirates were on top of the National League Central not long ago, but they’ve now dropped 10 straight games and are 10 games in back of the Milwaukee Brewers.  San Francisco has only won 2 of their last 8 games but still have a 0.5 game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West standings.  The Giants have defeated Pittsburgh in 10 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings.

San Francisco already had catcher Buster Posey, shortstop Miguel Tejada, left fielder Pat Burrell, and second baseman Freddy Sanchez on the disabled list with injuries, and now newly acquired right fielder Carlos Beltran is listed as questionable with a sore wrist.  The depleted Giants lineup will be going up against Pittsburgh right-hander Charlie Morton (8-6, 1.53 WHIP, 3.80 ERA) and are hoping to do better than when Moton limited them to just 4 hits and 1 earned run over 6.0 innings earlier this season.  Although Morton has lost 4 of his 5 career starts against San Francisco, it’s worth noting that he’s been spectacular in all but 1 game.

Opposing Mortin will be right-hander Ryan Vogelsong (9-1, 1.24 WHIP, 2.19 ERA) for the Giants.  Vogelsong has been pitching well over his head all season long and I’m expecting some regression over the 2nd half of the season for the former Pirate.  Pittsburgh has hit .245 over their last 10 games and first baseman Derrek Lee is listed as probable for this clash after missing his last 4 games with a bruised left hand.  Vogelsong has one career start against his old team, a 5.2 inning game from a few months back that saw him allow 4 hits, 2 walks, and 2 earned runs.

The Pirates and Giants both have strong bullpens so I don’t see either team having much of an advantage in the later innings.  Although Morton has been a little shaky recently, he has the makeup and skill to do very well against the weak lineup that San Francisco will throw out today.  Vogelsong is due for some bad starts pretty soon and Pittsburgh will have a stronger lineup with Lee healthy.  This game is very close to a tossup and you have to like the +166 odds being offered to Pittsburgh bettors.  We hit a 2-1 underdog earlier in this winning streak and will go back to the well if another high-paying bet here.

Pirates 4

Giants 2