Strikeforce - Fedor vs. Henderson Fight Card Predictions

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 26 July 2011 20:58

It’s time for predictions on this weekend’s Strikeforce – Fedor vs. Henderson fight card.

The Strikeforce – Fedor vs. Henderson card is set to take place on July 30th from the Sears Centre in Hoffman Estates, Illinois, and we hope that our predictions will result in some easy money for the MMA fans out there.  Although the 220-pound catch weight fight between Fedor Emelianenko and Dan Henderson is sure to garner much of the attention, this is a Strikeforce card that is fairly stacked with big-name fighters who possess exciting styles.  Let’s preview the Strikeforce – Fedor vs. Henderson odds and then make predictions on the 4 most important fights on the card.

Strikeforce – Fedor vs. Henderson Betting Odds and Fight Card

Fedor Emelianenko -240

Dan Henderson +200

Miesha Tate +105

Marloes Coenen -125

Robbie Lawler +175

Tim Kennedy -225

Paul Daley +180

Tyron Woodley -240

Scott Smith +200

Tarec Saffiedine -260

Gesias Cavalcante

Bobby Green

Julie Kedzie

Alexis Davis

Derek Brunson

Lumumba Sayers

Tyler Stinson

Eduardo Pamplona

Strikeforce – Fedor vs. Henderson Predictions

Dan Henderson vs. Fedor Emelianenko

Although Emelianenko (31-3) gets the nod as the betting favorite thanks to fighting at his normal weight while Henderson (27-8) is moving up, there are a ton of similarities between the styles of these fighters.  Henderson and Fedor both have knockout power in their big right hands, and both have shown an amazing ability to take punishment without being knocked out.

This fight will come down to the size advantage and Emelianenko’s advantage in the submission department, and I expect the Russian to take down Henderson and submit him like he did previously to wrestlers like Mark Coleman and Kevin Randleman.  Henderson is always a threat with that knockout power of his but I don’t think his defensive wrestling will be enough to stop the takedown from his larger and more powerful opponent.  We’ll say Fedor gets the win in the 1st round by way of armbar.

Marloes Coenen vs. Miesha Tate

This one will be for the Strikeforce Women’s Welterweight Championship, and Miesha Tate (11-2) will do her best to grab the belt from incumbent Marloes Coenen (19-4).  This fight comes down to whether or not you think that Tate’s wrestling-based grappling will be able to hold top position against Coenen’s always-dangerous guard, and I just don’t see these ladies doing much striking.

Tate has never been submitted but she’s also never had to go 5 rounds with a fighter as skilled in Jiu Jitsu as Coenen.  The challenger did survive for 3 rounds against the dangerous Hitomi Akano last time out, but that fight was nearly a year ago and ring rust may come into play here.  You win a fight against Coenen by out-grappling her or by keeping it standing and taking advantage of her lack of knockout power, and I think Tate can do both of those things.  The underdog will constantly be in trouble with top position but I think that she’s savvy enough to pull out a 5-round unanimous decision victory to take the belt.

Robbie Lawler vs. Tim Kennedy

I consider this fight to be pretty close to a tossup and have to go with those big odds offered on Lawler (18-7).  Kennedy (13-3) has a great chin, solid striking skills, and the submission edge here, but Lawler packs one-punch knockout power and some excellent takedown defense.  The one big weakness that Lawler has shown is getting stuck on his back against superior grapplers, but Kennedy isn’t on the level of guys like Ronaldo Souza, Renato Sobral, or Jake Shields in that regard.

It will all depend on whether or not Kennedy has the takedowns and control to get this fight to the ground and I’m just not sure he possesses those skills.  If Lawler goes down, he’s in trouble.  That being said, if Kennedy fails on his takedowns, then he’s the one that is risking a quick loss.  I’m calling for Lawler to get the 3rd round TKO against Kennedy in a back-and-forth bout.

Paul Daley vs. Tyron Woodley

The story on Daley (27-10-2) is that he’s an explosive striker that isn’t able to defeat wrestlers because of his problems with takedown defense and grappling.  That’s bad news against Woodley (8-0-0), a high school wrestling champion that went to Missouri with 2008 Olympian Ben Askren while being named a two-time All American.

This is a bad stylistic matchup for Daley, but one thing that the veteran does have on his side is experience.  Woodley has tons of potential but is still learning the fight game and isn’t nearly as polished as guys like Josh Koscheck and Jake Shields that have defeated Daley in recent years.  I’d go with Woodley if I just had to pick the winner from a non-betting perspective, but since the odds show almost 2/1 on a Daley bet I have to put my money on the underdog.  Daley has the striking to end this fight with a single punch and we’ll cross our fingers and hope he can take advantage of Woodley’s underdeveloped striking skills before getting stuck on his back.