Thursday MLB Best Bet: Brewers vs. Diamondbacks

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 21 July 2011 17:37

We are back in Arizona for Thursday’s MLB best bet between the Diamondbacks and the Brewers.

After hitting a nice underdog in this series last night, we figured we might as well go back to what is working in Thursday’s game between the Milwaukee Brewers (53-46) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (52-46).  The visiting Brewers took home the 5-2 victory last night and have now won 8 of their last 9 in Arizona, but the online sportsbooks continue to make the Diamondbacks the betting favorites.  Arizona is favored at -110 odds for tonight’s 9:40 PM ET clash and we’ll tell you if they can finally break out of their recent slump against the Brewers.

Today’s starters are Zack Greinke (7-3, 1.24 WHIP, 5.04 ERA) for the Brewers and Ian Kennedy (10-3, 1.15 WHIP, 3.39 ERA) for the Diamondbacks.  Although Greinke has been striking out plenty of batters this season, he has also given up too many home runs which is bad news for this smaller stadium.  Kennedy is another guy that can get crushed with the long ball and he has surrendered 6 earned runs over his 13.0 career innings pitched against Milwaukee.  Greinke has been the superior pitcher of late but the Brewers’ bullpen is much riskier to trust than that of Arizona; especially after newly-acquired Francisco Rodriguez blew a 2-run lead late in last night’s contest.

The Diamondbacks and Brewers both received bad news yesterday, with Arizona shortstop Stephen Drew being done for the season with a broken right ankle and speedy Milwaukee outfielder Carlos Gomez being listed as “out indefinitely” with a fractured left clavicle.  The Diamondbacks have hit just .224 over their last 10 games and just haven’t been able to score more than a run or two against most starters they’ve faced.  Milwaukee is at .251 over that same time frame but has the players to put up bigger run totals because of their power potential.

My main concern for the Brewers is their .233 average on the road this season, but ultimately there is just too much value in the odds not to go with Greinke and Milwaukee as underdogs here.  The phenom starter is going to be nearly unhittable in the 2nd half of the season and the Diamondbacks can’t hit lesser starters at this point.  Kennedy is a solid pitcher but his long ball-allowing tendencies should ensure that the visiting Brewers get enough runs on the board to take home another win and extend the streak to wins in 9-of-10 in Arizona.

Brewers 4

Diamondbacks 1