Thursday MLB Best Bet: Orioles vs. Blue Jays

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 28 July 2011 03:50

The MLB game between the Orioles and the Blue Jays has been selected as the best bet for Thursday.

We won with our +120 underdog in a blowout Wednesday, and we hope for the same success in the Thursday MLB best bet between the Toronto Blue Jays (51-52) and the Baltimore Orioles (41-58).  Online sportsbooks have the home-team Blue Jays as -155 betting favorites, and with Baltimore’s 15-30 road record it’s not tough to see why.

Baltimore has lost 14 of their last 56 games in Toronto and sits 22.0 games in back of the current American League East-leading Boston Red Sox.  The Blue Jays aren’t exactly in the thick of the MLB playoff hunt either, but they still have slim hopes of claiming the wild card spot and sit just 10.0 games in back of the New York Yankees for that honor.  Both squads have unreliable bullpens so our bet here is likely to come down to how the starting pitchers matchup against the opposing offenses.

Right-handed Toronto starter Carlos Villanueva (5-2, 1.16 WHIP, 3.40 ERA) has been pitching a bit over his head this season, but ultimately he’s still a good starter that gives his team a chance to win.  The Orioles are hitting .254 over their last 10 games and just lost designated hitter Luke Scott (.220, 9 home runs) for the season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder.  Villanueva is a hit-or-miss pitcher most days but it’s encouraging that he’s only allowed 5 earned runs over his two starts against the Orioles this season; both resulting in Toronto victories.

Baltimore will counter with right-hander Bradley Bergesen (2-6, 1.43 WHIP, 5.54 ERA) against a Toronto squad that is hitting just .234 over the course of their last 10 games.  Although Toronto isn’t hitting for a high average, they generate plenty of power shots and it’s not encouraging that Bergesen gave up 3 home runs last time he was in this park.  Although he threw a 1-run, 9-inning performance against the Blue Jays last time he faced them, that start was last year and Bergesen doesn’t look the same this season.  He also gave up 18 total earned runs over 4 starts against Toronto in 2010 even with that dominant performance included.

I simply don’t see any other MLB bet here to make other than going with the Blue Jays as moderate-sized favorites.  They should be able to crush Bergesen while Villanueva appears likely to do enough to keep the Orioles from scoring a ton of runs.  Villanueva also goes deeper into games than Bergesen which helps our cause with both bullpens likely to give up runs.  Toronto is a scary team at home and I just don’t think the Orioles can match the production of the Blue Jays.

Orioles 4

Blue Jays 7