Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Astros vs. Rockies

Tuesday’s MLB best bet segment will preview the clash between the Rockies and the Astros.

 

The Houston Astros (42-85) and the Colorado Rockies (60-68) will play in our Tuesday MLB best bet and the line movement here has been interesting.  The home-team Rockies opened up as -178 betting favorites before the online sportsbooks where hit with plenty of Houston money that pushed the MLB odds to -153.  The total in the Astros vs. Rockies game has been set at 9 runs and close to 80% of tracked MLB bettors are making their picks on Colorado to get the win.

 

Despite the large underdog odds, it is worth noting that Houston has won 9 of the last 12 games against Colorado.  The Astros will have right-hander Bud Norris (6-8, 1.33 WHIP, 3.61 ERA) on the mound and he has a 4.76 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Norris has never thrown against the Rockies but he will be facing a team that has hit just .237 over their last 10 games.  For whatever reason, Norris has also pitched better on the road this season although most of his starts weren’t in hitter’s parks like he'll have to deal with against the Rockies.

 

Colorado will start newly-acquired right-handed prospect Alex White (1-0, 1.53 WHIP, 3.60 ERA), a former first round draft pick who came over in the deal for Ubaldo Jimenez.  White has been dominant in the minor leagues and was strong in his 3 MLB starts earlier this year, but there are definitely some concerns.  He’s pitched very little since missing a couple of months with a finger injury and there are still concerns that his secondary pitches aren’t as strong as his excellent fastball.  The good news for White is that the Astros are only hitting .235 over their last 10 games, while Colorado hits .271 at home on the year.

 

The bullpens could definitely have a say in deciding the Astros vs. Rockies game since neither starter goes particularly deep into games.  With both teams having injuries to their reliable relievers I’m not sure who to give the edge too in this category.  Houston’s 3.50 bullpen ERA bests the 3.57 mark that Colorado has put up, while the Rockies’ cumulative relief pitcher WHIP of 1.23 edges out the Astros’ 1.32.

 

After all that, it appears that the early line move on the Astros was the correct bet.  I still think there is value at the current odds and it is just tough to trust White with so little rehab work since the injury.  He’s unlikely to go deep into the game, his high WHIP indicates that he’s not as good as his ERA indicates, and the Colorado bullpen has issues right now with closer Huston Street injured.  Norris is capable of putting in quality innings and I like the fact that the Rockies haven’t been seeing the ball well lately.

 

Astros 5

Rockies 4