Tuesday MLB Best Bet: Rangers vs. Angels

Written by Jake Thompson
Tuesday, 19 July 2011 16:45

The Rangers and Angels will be featured in our MLB best bet for Tuesday.

Online sportsbooks have the road-team Texas Rangers (55-41) as a -132 betting favorite for their 10:05 PM ET game against the Los Angeles Angels (51-45), and there isn’t a better game on the board to wager on today.  Despite the high road odds of the Rangers, close to 70% of tracked MLB bettors are laying their money down on the favorite.  We’ll take a look at how both American League squads are playing and then let our readers know the best bet to make.

Although the Angels have been playing well lately with 6 wins over their last 10 games, they still sit 4 games in back of the red-hot Rangers who have taken home victories in 11 straight games.  Former bullpen ace turned starter Alexi Ogando (9-3, 1.01 WHIP, 2.92 ERA) gets the nod for Texas today and he’s going through the first rough stretch of his season.  I had always wondered if arm fatigue would take over since Ogando was used to a setup role, and Rangers manager Ron Washington has been trying to limit his innings.  Although Ogando should still be a capable starter, I don’t believe his 2nd half will mirror the stellar 1st frame he has put together thus far.  The Angels didn’t hit him much in their first game against Ogando (1 ER over 6.0 innings), but I expect them to do better in their second go.

The Rangers have hit .298 over their last 10 games and will be going against Tyler Chatwood (5-5, 1.55 WHIP, 3.62 ERA) tonight.  I’m still amazed that Chatwood is continuously getting away with putting so many runners on base, but he just appears to be one of those guys that can generate ground ball outs when he needs them.  Texas has never faced Chatwood and I do like the fact that the young starter doesn’t give up home runs.  When facing a team with as much power ability as the Rangers, you simply can’t give up home runs and expect to stay in the game.

If I was forced to play a side, I think the Angels at home as small underdogs present the best value because of Ogando’s regression and Chatwood’s ability to limit home runs.  That being said, the total is set low at just 8 runs and I think these teams can go over that number by at least a few scores.  Texas should get plenty of chances against Chatwood and I just don’t trust Ogando at this stage of the season.

Rangers 4

Angels 5