UFC Live 5 Card, Odds, & Fight Predictions

Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 12 August 2011 18:44

Let’s preview the UFC Live 5 card with fight predictions and a look at the betting odds.

The UFC Live 5 fight card is coming up on August 14th from the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and there are some matchups that are perfect for our betting predictions.  The UFC Live 5 main event will be an exciting tilt between strikers Dan Hardy and Chris Lytle, while the fight between Jim Miller and Benson Henderson goes a long way toward figuring out the lightweight title picture.  Let’s take a look at the UFC Live 5 card and then make some predictions against the betting odds available at various online sportsbooks.

UFC Live 5 Fight Card:

Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

Benson Henderson vs. Jim Miller

Amir Sadollah vs. Duane Ludwig

Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira

Joseph Benavidez vs. Eddie Wineland

Cole Miller vs. T.J. O’Brien

Kyle Noke vs. Ed Herman

Karlos Vemola vs. Ronny Markes

Jacob Volkman vs. Danny Castillo

C.B. Dollaway vs. Jared Hamman

Alex Caceres vs. Jimy Hettes

Jason Reinhardt vs. Edwin Figueroa

UFC Live 5 Odds:

Dan Hardy -105

Chris Lytle -115

Ben Henderson +135

Jim Miller -155

Duane Ludwig +265

Amir Sadollah -325

Donald Cerrone +115

Charles Oliveira -135

Jospeh Benavidez -250

Eddie Wineland +210

C.B. Dollaway -255

Jared Hamman +215

Ed Herman +120

Kyle Noke -140

Ronny Markes +185

Karlos Vemola -225

Jimy Hettes -360

Alex Caceres +300

Cole Miller -400

T.J. O’Brien +325

Jacob Volkman -110

Danny Castillo -110

Jason Reinhardt +265

Edwin Figueroa -325

UFC Live 5 Predictions:

Dan Hardy vs. Chris Lytle

The story here is that both fighters are strikers with incredible chins, and this one appears likely to go the distance.  Lytle has a big submission edge but he’s shown in previous fights that he’ll avoid the ground game if challenged to a striking war.  Hardy has issued that challenge, and I have to think that the Brit is a tick better if it stays standing.  Lytle’s ability to pull off a submission could be the great equalizer, but since I think these two will slug it out I’m going with Hardy to get the nod on the scorecards.

Jim Miller vs. Benson Henderson

Some people I know think that Henderson can pull this upset off but I’m just not seeing it.  Miller’s only two career losses were to Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar.  He has the wrestling edge here and his submission game should be better than Henderson’s.  Although the underdog could win some striking exchanges with his length, ultimately Miller’s wrestling and inability to be submitted will power him to a unanimous decision victory.

Duane Ludwig vs. Amir Sadollah

These guys both have kickboxing backgrounds with Sadollah holding a big edge if the fight hits the mat.  That being said, the healthy favorite is fairly lanky and is not a wrestler with great takedowns.  Ludwig has power in his strikes and should be in this fight if he can keep it standing.  Although Sadollah is the better overall fighter, I am calling for Ludwig to pull the upset in a hard-fought 3-round war.  It will be close but I like Ludwig’s experience, kickboxing prowess, and long odds.

Donald Cerrone vs. Charles Oliveira

This fight might even be tougher to make predictions on than the UFC Live 5 main event.  Cerrone is a technical kick boxer with excellent submission defense while Oliveira is a talented Jiu Jitsu artist with solid striking skills.  Although Cerrone could be in some trouble if the fight hits the mat, I ultimately think that he’ll use his distance properly and win the fight by getting the best of the striking.  Even if it goes to the mat, Cerrone should be able to fend off submissions and use his excellent scrambles to get back to his feet.  I don’t think I’ve ever called for so many decisions on any card ever, but this looks like another extremely exciting fight where the judge’s give it to the underdog.

Eddie Wineland vs. Joseph Benavidez

For once we have found a fight on the UFC Live 5 televised card that we don’t think will go to a decision.  Wineland is tough as nails and seems to put better fighters in tough spots, but ultimately I don’t think he’ll be any match for Benavidez.  Look for the betting favorite to use his quick striking and smothering ground game to control Wineland for much of the fight.  After a while, I expect the scrappy Wineland to get anxious with his scramble while Benavidez sinks in the hooks before completing the rear-naked choke in the 3rd round.