Friday MLB Best Bet: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox

Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 15 April 2011 19:45

We’ll try to keep the winning streak active with our Friday MLB best bet.

The Toronto Blue Jays (6-6) and the Boston Red Sox (2-9) are the subject of our MLB best bet for Friday, and these American League East challengers make for an interesting wager.  Online sportsbooks currently have the home-team Red Sox as large -175 favorites with the runs expected to be plentiful according to the over/under total of 9.5.  We’ll take a look at both teams and then figure out the correct bet to make so that our readers can get some extra money for their Friday evening activities.

The Red Sox and the Blue Jays are no strangers to each other and Boston took home wins in 12 of the 18 meetings last season.  Toronto did come back to win 4 of the last 7 and the Blue Jays have certainly been playing better baseball since the 2011 MLB season began and it will be interesting to see if the Red Sox can get back on track to justify the lofty expectations that many experts placed upon them during spring training.

Boston will start right-hander Clay Buchholz (0-2, 1.80 WHIP, 7.20 ERA) and the young stud pitcher has been absolutely dreadful in losses to the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees to begin the season.  After a masterful 2010 season in which he rarely yielded home runs, Buchholz has given up 5 long balls in 2 games this year.  The good news is that he dominated the Blue Jays in 3 starts last season, tallying 22 innings pitched to go along with just 17 hits and 1 earned run allowed.  The Toronto offense is scoring runs at a decent rate to start the season but Buchholz has top-10 stuff and it might be time for him to turn his year around.

Toronto will counter with left-hander Brett Cecil (0-1, 1.90 WHIP, 7.20 ERA) and the 24-year-old starter has been even worse than Buchholz.  The difference between the two is that Cecil has been rocked by weaker hitting teams in the Los Angeles Angels and the Minnesota Twins, and you have to wonder if something is wrong with his form.  For being so inexperienced, Cecil has pitched against the Red Sox 5 times and won his last 2 starts.  In his 3 career games at Fenway, Cecil has gone 17.1 innings while giving up 27 hits, 7 walks, and 15 earned runs.  The Red Sox started the season slowly on offense but have really turned it on after they returned home and are now hitting .282 at Fenway on the year.

Another issue for Boston has been their bullpen and the Red Sox’s late inning relievers have accumulated a 6.21 ERA on the year.  Closer Jonathon Papelbon seems to be trending downward but has been one of the most reliable members of the pen with his 3.00 ERA.  Toronto relievers are clocking in with a 2.45 ERA and seem to be more ready for the season.  Red Sox starters have been leaving games early and making the bullpen pitch far too many innings so it will be important for Buchholz to throw some quality innings tonight.

Our Friday MLB best bet will be on the Red Sox and we fully expect Buchholz to rebound despite facing a tough Toronto lineup.  I’m not 100% convinced he’ll dominate them like he did last season, but I’d expect a much better outing than Cecil will give for the Blue Jays.

Blue Jays 3

Red Sox 8