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Friday MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals
Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 08 July 2011 05:40
Friday’s MLB best bet will be the game between the Diamondbacks and the Cardinals.
The Arizona Diamondbacks (47-41) and the St. Louis Cardinals (47-41) are set to do battle in this 8:15 PM ET game, and we hope that our handicapping will have you betting on the right team. Online sportsbooks currently have the home-team Cardinals favored at -123 odds with close to 65% of tracked MLB bettors taking St. Louis. We’ll take a look at how both National League squads are playing and then make an assessment after breaking everything down.
Why the Diamondbacks Will Win
Arizona’s 24-22 road record is nearly as good as the Cardinals’ 23-19 mark at home, and the Diamondbacks have a quality starter on the mound in the form of right-hander Ian Kennedy (8-3, 1.14 WHIP, 3.38 ERA). The Cardinals have hit 9 points lower at home than on the road this season, while Kennedy has won 4 of his last 5 road starts. Arizona’s offense scored an average of 7.33 runs per game in their earlier 3-game series against St. Louis this season, while the Diamondbacks totaled 16 runs in their most recent 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Why the Cardinals Will Win
St. Louis starter Kyle Lohse (8-5, 1.04 WHIP, 2.97 ERA) has had a phenomenal season, and the Diamondbacks have won only 2 of the last 9 times they’ve come into St. Louis to play. While Arizona has won only 4 of their last 10 overall coming into this matchup, the Cardinals have been much hotter as winners in 6 of 9. Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman have powered the St. Louis offense to 17 runs in their last 3 overall games and lit Kennedy up last time they saw him, scoring 9 earned runs over 3.0 innings in a 5-15 victory. Although Arizona’s runs per game production in the earlier season series was impressive, St. Louis ultimately outdid them, scoring over 10 runs per contest.
MLB Best Bet for Friday
Although Lohse is coming off of a horrible performance against Arizona back in 2010, Kennedy threw his horrible innings this year and has had most of his horrible starts come on the road. The price is a bit lower than I’d imagine which scares me, but ultimately I have to believe that the Cardinals are the play here. They have the better starting pitcher, the stronger offense, and a bullpen that has been more reliable.
Diamondbacks 4
Cardinals 5