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Friday MLB Best Bet: Mariners vs. Marlins
Written by Jake Thompson
Friday, 24 June 2011 06:10
The Marlins and Mariners will do battle in our MLB best bet for Friday.
Online sportsbooks have made the visiting Seattle Mariners (37-37) the fairly large -153 betting favorite for their 10:10 PM ET clash with the Florida Marlins (33-42), and our Friday MLB best bet will help you figure out which squad to choose. Florida’s road record is significantly better than their home mark, and the Mariners’ surprisingly strong play is part of the reason why the visitors are favorites here. The other reason, of course, is because Seattle has Felix Hernandez (7-6, 1.21 WHIP, 3.34 ERA) pitching for them.
Hernandez hasn’t been as dominant as last season, and there are some warning signs after the ace put together a 1.57 WHIP and 4.57 ERA over the course of his last 21.2 innings pitched. One thing I’ve noticed about his bad outings this year is that he’s served up the bad games to veteran teams who are patient. With the Marlins coming in hitting just .197 over the course of their last 10 games, it’s safe to say this team might just get dominated by Mr. Hernandez on Friday night.
Right-hander Ricky Nolasco (4-3, 1.41 WHIP, 4.48 ERA) gets the nod for the Marlins, and he has been even worse than Hernandez lately. Sporting a 1.96 WHIP and 7.04 ERA over his last 3 starts (all losses), Nolasco needs to break out of his funk. He can be dominant at times, but he’s also prone to long stretches of bad play. After giving up 24 earned runs over the course of his last 5 games, this is one of those bad stretches. The good news for Nolasco is that Seattle can’t hit (.226 on the season), so he might just get things back in order.
I expect both pitchers to put together solid outings, but I think the value here has to be on the Marlins at home. They are large underdogs and it doesn’t take much to shutout the Mariners these days. Hernandez should have a very nice game as well but the value simply has to be on Florida at these odds. Look for a low-scoring game, although it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if either pitcher got hit hard with the way things have gone for both lately.
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