MLB Predictions: NL Central Preview

Written by Alex Moretto
Thursday, 31 March 2011 17:37

Our preview will let you know who wins the NL Central.

The St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will take part in a tough competition to be crowned NL Central champions. This is perhaps the toughest division to predict as all three of those teams have a good combination of pitching and hitting that make them more than capable of winning it.

The defending champion Reds possess perhaps the deepest starting rotation, however, they do not have a true ace. While Volquez is a great pitcher, he has still yet to show enough consistency and dominance to be considered an ace. Volquez is accompanied by Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake. The young starting staff is rapidly improving but has still yet to put it all together. They are still young however, and in a few years Volquez (27), Cueto (24), Leake (23) and Bailey (24) will combine to form one of the league’s most dangerous rotations. That is not to forget pitching sensation Aroldis Chapman (22) who will spend the majority of 2011 in the bullpen along with Francisco Cordero and Nich Masset. Cordero will be the closer once again and he is coming off an impressive 40 save season. The Cardinals starting rotation was very impressive; that was until they lost Adam Wainwright for the entire season. This will prompt Carpenter (16-9, 3.22 ERA last year) to step up into the number one spot. Carpenter will be followed by the efficient Jake Westbrook, Jamie Garcia, who they will need to step up and have a stellar sophomore season, and the erratic Kyle Loshe. Loshe has seen drops in his numbers the last two seasons now after posting a 15-6 record with a 3.78 ERA in 2008. He had surgery in 2009 to his shoulder and has seemingly never recovered, losing significant velocity on his fastball. The Cardinals bullpen provides a nice compliment to their starting staff. Ryan Franklin, who converted 27 of 29 save attempts last season will continue to be the teams closer. Kyle McClellan and Jason Motte will be given the most opportunities for relief out of the pen. The Brewers pitching staff went from weak to great over a three month span, thanks to the additions of former Royals ace Zack Greinke and the underrated Shaun Marcum. Everyone knows what Greinke brings to the table. He is a proven ace who will be consistent night in and night out. Now that he is on a good team, look for Greinke to approach the twenty win mark this season. Marcum has accumulated 22 wins and a sub-four ERA in his last two full seasons. One year removed from Tommy John surgery, Marcum is ready to put up some of the best numbers of his career on a rapidly improving Brewer team. Sandwiched in between the two in the second spot will be Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo will look to duplicate his numbers from last season in which he posted a 14-7 record with a 3.84 ERA. The Brewers bullpen will make or break this newly formed pitching rotation however. If they can manage to find the right combination coming out of the pen, the acquisitions of Greinke and Marcum will be a success. John Axford (closer), LaTroy Hawkins and Manny Parra will figure to see the most action, while Zach Braddock will continue to face left handed batters which he held to a .151 average last year.

As for offense, each team has a combination of 3-4 hitters that put fear into opposing pitchers. Pujols and Holliday combined for 70 home runs, 221 RBI’s and a .312 average last season. The scariest part about Pujols this season: he is in a contract year. Look out NL Central, he is a man on a mission. Newly acquired Lance Berkman and Ryan Theriot will provide some extra offense for the Cardinals, along with Colby Rasmus, Yadier Molina, David Freese and Skip Schumaker. Rasmus, 23, is poised for a breakout season after hitting 23 home runs and 66 RBI’s last season. With Pujols and Holliday in the line-up, he sure will get a lot of nice pitches to hit. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun highlight a strong Brewers line-up. Fielder will look to rebound after a slower season last year. Luckily for Brewers fans, Fielder is 27 years old. Historically, this is the age where the majority of hitters reach their physical peak and produce the best numbers of their career. The Brewers line-up is full of power as they had four players hit over twenty home runs (Fielder, 32, Corey Hart, 31, Rickie Weeks, 29, Braun, 25, Casey McGehee, 23) and three of those five hit for over 100 RBI’s (Fielder and Weeks each had 83). There is a ton of power in this Brewers line-up which should be able to provide plenty of run support for one of the leagues better starting rotations. Cincinnati is led by Joey Votto who is coming off an MVP season. Votto hit .324/37/113 last season and led the Reds to their first division title since 1995. Votto is accompanied in the line-up by Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen who each hit over twenty home runs last year. Brandon Phillips is another consistent bat for the team, along with reigning World Series MVP Edgar Renteria who was just signed by the club.

The Cubs, Pirates and Astros are stuck in a battle of irrelevancy, with the Cubs being the only team with a slim hope of cracking the top three. The Cubs bolstered their rotation by signing pitching stud Matt Garza from the Rays this offseason. Garza joins a rotation that already features Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano who played exceptional in the closing stages of last season. The line-up features a slew of inconsistent hitters, including Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena and Kosuke Fukudome. If these hitters can find their form this season, the Cubs could make a play for a top three finish. The Pirates rotation is one of the weakest in the league, with only one pitcher coming off a double digit win season (Kevin Correia who won ten games with the Padres). Their line-up does contain some very talented hitters however. Andrew McCutchen, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez give Pirates fans something to look forward to this season. They will be the core of this Pittsburgh line-up for years to come. The Astros have one of the more underrated starting staffs in the  league and I think that will show this season. Brett Myers is turning into a prolific shutdown pitcher who racks up plenty of quality starts. Wandy Rodriguez got off to a slow start last season but in his final 13 outings he limited opposing hitters to a .196 average. J. A. Happ, Bud Norris and Nelson Figueroa close out the starting rotation. If it were not for such a weak infield, I would have put the Astros down as my sleeper team for the 2011 season. However, with the likes of Jason Castro, Brett Wallace, Bill Hall, Clint Barmes and Chris Johnson manning the infield, it’s hard to take the Astros line-up seriously. Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence and the aging Carlos Lee form a fairly talented outfield for the Astros.

Projected order of Finish
1.    Milwaukee Brewers +185 (Great rotation and frightening offense have the Brewers ready to make a run)
2.    Cincinnati Reds (Lack of a legitimate ace will come back to haunt the team)
3.    St. Louis Cardinals (Loss of Wainwright hurts, a lot)
4.    Chicago Cubs (The addition of Garza keeps them in the four spot for now)
5.    Houston Astros (I would have them at 3-4 if not for their poor infield)
6.    Pittsburgh Pirates (Again, it’s not the year for the Pirates to make any noise)