MLB Predictions: NL West Preview

Written by Alex Moretto
Friday, 01 April 2011 18:39

The big question: Will the Giants avoid a World Series hangover and win back to back NL West titles?

The Giants need to hope they can avoid getting off to a slow start and falling too far behind in the NL West. Luckily for them, the division is not as strong as it may have been in recent memory. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito combine to form one of the league’s best starting rotations. Not much needs to be said about this group as the results speak for themselves. Lincecum is the games second best pitcher, however, his presence in the rotation often causes Matt Cain to get overlooked, so let me tell you a few things about Cain. He has a career ERA of 3.45 and has started in over thirty games in each of the past five seasons: 31, 32, 34, 33 and 33. In the past two seasons he has posted a 2.89 and 3.14 ERA, while only having an ERA above four once in his career. Combine those numbers with Lincecum and Sanchez who held the opposition to a league low 6.6 hits per nine innings last season and you have arguably the best 1-2-3 in baseball (aside from the Phillies). The Giants have quite an impressive group of guys in the bullpen to compliment such a strong starting staff. Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Casilla and of course, closer Brian Wilson all played a big part in getting the Giants that World Series title. Wilson posted 48 saves last year and Affeldt should be healthy after battling through injuries off and on last season.

When you look at the Giants line-up you really do not see any stars (however, Posey is becoming one). They just have a good combination of role players who do their job well on a daily basis. None of them put up huge numbers, but they do enough collectively to provide the excellent starting staff with enough run support. After all, the Giants were 80-24 last season when they scored three or more runs (the best in the majors). Buster Posey will look to produce big numbers in his first full season with the club, while veterans Aubrey Huff, Miguel Tejada and Freddy Sanchez look to build off last season’s fairly strong numbers. Cody Ross will look to match his dominant play from the playoffs last season and the Giants will hope to get a bounce back season from Pablo Sandoval who saw a big drop off in production last season. If he can return to his .330/25/90 form from 2009, there won’t be anything stopping this team from running away with the division title.

The Rockies best chance for success this season will come at the hands of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. We all know what a sensational year Carlos Gonzalez had last season (.336/34/117) however, Tulowitzki still holds the key to this Rockies offense. Tulowitzki will continue to bat clean-up however, remains one of the few clean-up hitters who also hits for average. He is a superb fielder as well as the undoubted leader of this team. Ian Stewart holds a large part of the Rockies fate in his hands. If he can live up to his career potential, the Rockies could be in for a big season. While many will expect big things from this line-up in 2011, there will be a ton of pressure placed on the bullpen. Closer Huston Street and relievers Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle and Matt Lindstrom will play a huge role in determining the success of the Rockies this season. The team was involved in 58 one run games last season, winning only 28 of those games. If the bullpen can hold strong and limit the damage done by opposing teams, the Rockies may be able to get those extra ten wins needed to win the NL West. With ace Ubaldo Jiminez and reliable starters in Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin and Aaron Cook manning the rotation, there can be no counting out this Rockies team in 2011. These guys were quality start machines last season for the Rockies and there is no doubting the amount of talent behind some of these young arms.

The Padres went on quite an impressive run last season, finishing with 90 wins, just two games back of the division winning Giants. This required almost unmatchable numbers from their group of journeymen; something that no Padres fan should expect from team this season. The team traded away all-star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox this offseason. After trading away Gonzalez and losing the likes of Miguel Tejada, Kevin Correia, John Garland, Matt Stairs, Yorvit Torrealba and more, 2011 could prove to be a long season for Padres fans. They matched these losses with the arrivals of Jason Bartlett and Brad Hawpe from Tampa Bay, Orlando Hudson from Minnesota and Cameron Maybin from Florida. Whether this will be enough to combat the losses, we will soon find out. Young starter Matt Latos will give the fans something to cheer about this season as he looks poised to take the reins and lead the Padres starting rotation. This will be his third season in the majors, a year where pitchers historically experience their breakout seasons.

The Dodgers and Diamondbacks round out the NL West. The Diamondbacks are staring to build a competitive team but still need a few more pieces before they can be talked about with the likes of the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers. The Dodgers will be right there alongside the Rockies in a battle to catch San Francisco who will figure to sit atop the NL West. Take a quick glance at their rotation and it is really hard to find a weak spot. The Giants have Zito and the Rockies have Hammel, but the Dodgers have a group of five strong pitchers. Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley are already proven aces. Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Jon Garland round out the starting rotation. The three of them are all more than capable starters who have the ability to repeat as ten plus game winners this season. Their line-up features outfielders Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp who will hit in the three and four spots. Ethier has remained fairly consistent and reliable for the Dodgers. He saw a slight drop off in home runs and RBI’s but made up for it with a formidable increase in average last season. It will be Kemp who holds the key for this Dodgers offense in 2011. They need a 30/100 year from him and also would like his average to get back up after dropping from .297 to .249 last season.

Projected order of finish
1.    San Francisco Giants +150
2.    Colorado Rockies (Tulo and Gonzalez will keep them in the divisional race until the end, but the Rockies will have to settle for the wild card, beating out the Phillies in the process)
3.    Los Angeles Dodgers (Without a doubt worth taking a shot on a good Dodgers team to win the division at +275. It would not surprise me if they won the division, or at the very least were in it until the very end)
4.    Arizona Diamondbacks (Justin Upton and Stephen Drew will help increase the teams win total along with the likes of Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy)
5.    San Diego Padres (Last year’s dream season is about to take a dive towards reality)

I would not hesitate for a second to put money on both the Braves and Brewers to win the pennant at 9-1. Also, take a very strong look at the Rockies at 12-1. They have as good a shot as any at making it to the World Series, following in the Giants footsteps from last season. Speaking of the Giants, are you kidding me Vegas? You’re seriously going to give me 7-1 odds on the Giants to return to the World Series? I’ll take that in a heartbeat. I would recommend spreading a bit of money on all four of them while the public continues to hammer the Phillies at even money.

The Rockies at 25-1, the Braves and Brewers at 20-1 and the Giants at 15-1 are all worth a look to win the World Series however, I think the Red Sox will take it home this year at 4-1.

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