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Monday MLB Best Bet: Mets vs. Dodgers
Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 04 July 2011 03:18
The Monday best bet between the Mets and Dodgers should win everyone some money.
The New York Mets (42-42) are visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers (37-47) in a 9:10 PM ET game on July 4th, and we will let you know which way to bet in our MLB best bet for Monday. Online sportsbooks have listed the Dodgers as small -113 betting favorites, partly due to the fact that New York’s shortstop Jose Reyes is expected to miss action with a hamstring injury. Reyes’ counterpart, Dodger shortshop Rafael Furcal, is listed as probable after missing the last 26 games thanks to a strained left oblique.
We’ll have two left-handed starting pitchers going here with Chris Capuano (7-7, 1.36 WHIP, 4.27 ERA) for the Mets and Ted Lilly (5-8, 1.29 WHIP, 4.97 ERA) for the Dodgers. Although their statistics on the year are fairly even, Capuano has a 3.71 ERA and a 2-1 record over his last 3 starts while Lilly a 10.43 ERA and a 0-3 record over the same span. New York hits .245 against southpaws and is barely eclipsed by the .250 mark that Los Angeles has amassed this season.
Both clubs come in red hot offensively with the Dodgers’ .285 average over their last 10 games actually eclipsed by New York’s stellar .326 mark. Los Angeles has hit just .235 at home this year and it will be interesting to see if their recent hot streak, plus the return of Furcal, can correct that poor number. Capuano hasn’t pitched against the Dodgers since 2007 but has had some success in this stadium historically, while Lilly has dominated the Mets in all 3 of his starts against them since 2007.
I don’t particularly trust either bullpen, and this game will come down to whether or not Lilly can bounce back after his recent slew of horrid starts. He’s been battling elbow tendinitis lately and has been getting hit hard by offenses that he’d usually find ways to get outs against. The Mets are hitting too well not to take advantage, and I think the visiting underdog has to be the bet here until Lilly gets his arm back to full strength.
Mets 5
Dodgers 3