Monday MLB Best Bet: Orioles vs. White Sox

Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 02 May 2011 17:51

The Monday MLB best bet is in the game between the Orioles and the White Sox.

You won’t find a better bet on Monday’s MLB card than the 8:10 clash between the Baltimore Orioles (13-13) and the Chicago White Sox (10-19).  Online sportsbooks have made the home-team White Sox the small wagering favorites despite the fact that their 4-9 record at home is eclipsed by the 6-5 road mark of the Orioles.  Many bettors seem to be stumped on a potential bet in this game and we’ll do our best to make sure you guys get on the right side of this American League clash.

The Orioles have won all 3 of the head-to-head meetings this season and were also winners in 4 of 7 last year.  Umpire Ed Rapuano will be calling balls and strikes tonight and it is worth noting that games where he was calling balls and strikes have gone over the total 4 of 5 times this season.  Tonight’s total is set at 8.5 runs and Rapuano’s games have generated 10.20 runs on average.

Starting pitchers are going to be important tonight since the Orioles have a 5.46 cumulative bullpen ERA while the White Sox relievers aren’t much better at 4.74.  Baltimore will send right-hander Jeremy Guthrie (1-3, 1.09 WHIP, 2.53 ERA) to the mound while Chicago will counter with veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle (1-3, 1.34 WHIP, 5.12 ERA).  The good news for both teams is that their starters tend to go deep into games and that should help stop the bleeding that each bullpen has the potential to inflict.

Baltimore is hitting just .211 against left-handed pitching this season and the Orioles are batting just .230 overall during their last 10 games.  Buehrle almost always gives up a couple of runs but I doubt Baltimore gets much more than that against him with the way they’ve been hitting lately.  Guthrie was hit hard in his last start against the White Sox but dominated this team in 3 previous starts.  With Chicago hitting just .236 on the season and a putrid .209 over their last 10 games, I’d expect Guthrie to have another quality start.

Although the White Sox aren’t hitting well, I have to believe they find a way to win this game and avoid a 4-game home sweep after dropping the last 3 in a row to Baltimore.  Guthrie is a very good pitcher but Buehrle still has plenty left in his gas tank and I have to think he does well with the Orioles’ inability to hit lefties.  I think this game might very well be tied when the starting pitchers leave before Baltimore’s bullpen lets the White Sox claim a much-needed home victory.

Orioles 4

White Sox 6