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Monday MLB Best Bet: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 25 April 2011 17:57
The Phillies and Diamondbacks game will be our Monday MLB best bet.
Online sportsbooks have made the Philadelphia Phillies (15-6) a fairly large favorite in tonight’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks (8-12) despite being the road team, and our Monday MLB best bet will let you know which team comes out on top in this 9:40 PM ET clash. Part of the reason for the Phillies being such a large road favorite is their 8-2 mark away from home, while having star lefty Cliff Lee (2-1, 1.11 WHIP, 3.91 ERA) on the mound doesn’t hurt either.
The Phillies have come out on top in 3 of Lee’s 4 starts this year and if you toss out an uncharacteristically bad start against the Atlanta Braves, Lee has allowed just 15 hits and 5 earned runs over 22 innings this season. Lee has only faced the Diamondbacks once in the last few years but it was a dominant 9-inning effort that saw Arizona amass just 2 base runners and 0 earned runs. The good news for the Diamondbacks is that they are hitting .275 at home this season and .295 against lefties in their home park.
Opposing Lee will be right-hander Ian Kennedy (2-1, 1.39 WHIP, 5.64 ERA) for the Diamondbacks. Kennedy has also been very sharp in 3 starts but did have a similar shellacking occur against the St. Louis Cardinals. Kennedy went 8 innings of 2-run ball against the Phillies in his only career start against them and he’ll be aided by the fact that Philadelphia is hitting just .236 on the road this season. Both of these teams are hitting around .200 over their last 10 games and both squads also depend on the long ball a bit too much.
That reliance on the home run will likely make for a low-scoring game since Lee and Kennedy are two of the best pitchers in baseball when it comes to keeping the ball in the park. The bullpens for these squads have also been solid and betting on the under 8.5 runs seems to be worth a look in what I expect to be a low-scoring affair. Lee is a great pitcher but Kennedy can be dominant at times also and I don’t think the Phillies deserve to be such large favorites on the road when they aren’t hitting. Bet on the Diamondbacks and you’ll get a great return on your investment.
Phillies 2
Diamondbacks 3