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Monday MLB Best Bet: Pirates vs. Astros
Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 29 August 2011 20:08
Monday’s MLB best bet will be in the game between the Pirates and the Astros.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (62-71) are on the road for Monday’s 8:05 PM ET clash with the Houston Astros (44-90), and the National League showdown has been deemed our MLB best bet of the day. Online sportsbooks have the MLB odds favoring the home-team Astros at -126 with a total set at just 8 runs. Roughly 60% of tracked bettors are taking the Pirates and we’ll let you know if Pittsburgh is going to get the road win here.
Although the Pirates have defeated the Astros in 9 of their last 11 meetings, Pittsburgh has also lost 7 of their last 8 against Houston when today’s starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf (0-1, 2.12 WHIP, 7.24 ERA) is in the mound. Ohlendorf hasn’t been overly impressive in the minor leagues this year and is coming off a shoulder strain injury as well. The Astros are hitting a decent .269 over their last 10 games and left fielder Carlos Lee (.270, 12 HRs) is set to play after spraining his ankle on Sunday. Although Ohlendorf can’t seem to beat Houston, it is worth noting that he’s pitched well during his last two starts on the road against the Astros (13.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 H, 4 BB).
Houston will start left-hander Wandy Rodriguez (9-9, 1.31 WHIP, 3.41 ERA), a pitcher that has a head-scratching 1.45 WHIP and 2.70 ERA over his last 3 starts. Rodriguez has allowed 11 earned runs over his 3 starts against the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh is hitting .251 over their last 10 games and has managed a poor .236 mark against lefties on the year. I don’t particularly trust either of these bullpens so our MLB bet will be based largely on how the starting pitchers match up against their opposing offenses.
I just don’t understand why the odds are so low in this one with Ohlendorf pitching so poorly of late. He has the potential to be a good pitcher but I’m not going to count on him putting in quality innings until he proves that he is all the way back. The Pirates have been getting horrible outings from their relief pitchers lately and I have to believe the home team makes sense as small favorites here.
Pirates 3
Astros 5