Monday MLB Best Bet: Pirates vs. Reds

Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 18 April 2011 17:06

The Monday MLB best bet will be in the game between the Pirates and the Reds.

The Pittsburgh Pirates (7-8) and the Cincinnati Reds (9-6) meet up at 7:10 PM ET tonight and this clash will be out Monday MLB best bet.  Cincinnati will be looking to improve on their 6-3 mark at home while the Pirates will look to spoil the party while adding to their impressive 6-3 record on the road.  Online sportsbooks have made the Reds a fairly large betting favorite tonight and close to 70% of tracked bettors are taking Cincinnati with their wagers.

Lefty Kevin Correia (2-1, 1.10 WHIP, 2.70 ERA) will take the mound for the Pirates and the veteran starter has been a nice surprise so far during the 2011 MLB season.  He’s thrown good innings against solid offensive teams in the Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, and Milwaukee Brewers, and he also has won his last 2 starts while pitching in Cincinnati.  Correia allowed just 3 hits and 2 earned runs when he pitched against the Reds last season, and his ability to limit the home run will surely help his chances against a power-hitting Cincinnati squad that is batting .314 at home this year.

The Reds will throw a lefty of their own in youngster Travis Wood (1-1, 1.12 WHIP, 3.86 ERA), and the young prospect struggled on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks but has also dominated the San Diego Padres and the Milwaukee Brewers in this young season.  He drew the Pirates once last season and had no issues at all, going 7 innings and only allowing 2 hits and 0 earned runs to claim a 4-0 victory.  Pittsburgh is only hitting .230 on the year and doesn’t figure to score many runs against Wood.

I think this game will be close for much of the action but worry about a Pittsburgh bullpen that has a 4.11 ERA on the year.  Cincinnati’s relief pitchers (2.20 cumulative ERA) have been much more reliable and this is a game that could easily go south in the later innings for Pittsburgh backers.  That being said, the Reds have no business being such large favorites here and our Monday MLB best bet will be on the Pirates to pull the upset after already winning 2 of 3 games during this series.  Correia is pitching too well and has too strong of a history against the Reds to go any other direction.

Pirates 4

Reds 3