Monday MLB Best Bet: Rays vs. Brewers

Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 20 June 2011 19:09

The Rays and Brewers will be featured in our MLB best bet for Monday evening.

Although the Milwaukee Brewers (40-33) have a terrific 25-9 mark at home this season, online sportsbooks have only made them a -135 betting favorite for their 8:10 PM ET clash with the Tampa Bay Rays (39-33).  Tampa Bay has a strong 21-15 record on the road this year, and the Rays have taken 2 of the 3 head-to-head meetings against Milwaukee (all 3 games were played in 2005).

The Brewers will turn to left-hander Chris Narveson (4-4, 1.39 WHIP, 4.48 ERA), and the Rays hit just .233 against southpaws this season.  Tampa Bay comes into this game hitting just .234 over their last 10 games and has never squared off against Narveson.  The lefty falls apart at times and has bad innings, but ultimately he’s a good pitcher that can get key outs against a team that hits as poorly as the Rays.

Righy Jeff Niemann (1-4, 1.37 WHIP, 5.74 ERA) gets the nod for the Rays after a back injury sent him to the disabled list for a good chunk of the season.  Niemann is coming off a great Triple-A rehab start and can be a tough pitcher to face because of his large frame.  Miluwakee is only hitting .253 over their last 10 games, but their .274 average at home this season makes me think the Brew Crew could do decently tonight.  Niemann has never squared off against the Brewers, and I’m still not overly confident in Tampa Bay’s bullpen despite their capable 3.61 relief ERA this season.

Although it’s tough to know what to expect from Narveson today, I have to think that Milwaukee is the best bet to make here.  They have a more potent offense, a better bullpen, and a pitcher that I believe is a bit more reliable.  The price is fairly low for this home favorite and I’ll be taking the Brewers to find a way to get the victory and improve on that impressive winning streak at home.

Rays 3

Brewers 4