NBA Finals Game 6 Betting Predictions

Written by Jake Thompson
Sunday, 12 June 2011 18:32

It’s time to make betting picks in game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Heat and the Mavericks.

With the Dallas Mavericks (72-30) holding a 3-2 lead in this best-of-7 series, it’s up to the Miami Heat (72-30) to even things up tonight to force a pivotal last game in the NBA Finals.  Online sportsbooks have made the home-team Heat a 4.5-point betting favorite for the game 6 clash, and Miami’s 39-12 record at American Airlines Arena this year bests the 34-16 road make that the Mavericks have amassed.  Miami is 9-1 at home during the playoffs this year, yet close to 70% of tracked NBA bettors are putting down their money on Dallas and driving the odds down from the -6 they were when betting opened up.

One interesting trend that does support Dirk Nowitzki and company is that the home team in this series has covered the NBA betting odds in just 3 of the last 17 head-to-head meetings between these teams.  Not only did Dallas deal Miami their only playoff loss at home this season, the Mavericks also went on the road and claimed a 98-96 victory over the Heat during the regular season as well.  Although those statistics seem to favor Dallas, you also have to figure in the fact that Miami has shot very well at home this season, and they seem likely to improve on the 44.7% shooting from the field they’ve amassed over the last 5 games of this series.

Dwyane Wade is coming off of a 23-point, 8-assist effort and has really been the guy that has been keeping Miami going in this series.  LeBron James put up a triple double (17 points, 10 assists, 10 rebounds) last time out, but his disappearing act in the 4th quarter has many questioning whether or not the mental fortitude matches his overwhelming athletic ability.  The Mavericks aren’t a terrific defensive team, but they are excellent at guarding the 3-point line, making it that much more necessary for a player like James to penetrate into the lane to draw in defenders.

Although Tyson Chandler’s finishing ability around the rim has left much to be desired in the NBA Finals, the big man’s ability to block shots and get big rebounds is being extremely underrated by the masses.  Although Dirk Nowitzki is the catalyst that makes the Mavericks go, Dallas has received plenty of contributions from role players.  If Dallas wants to win the title in game 6, they’ll have to continue to be hot from beyond the arc while getting solid minutes from their bench.  Miami’s defense is above average and produces plenty of turnovers that lead to fast breaks, their perimeter defense has been very average (35.3%) and could get them into trouble if Dallas gets hot again.

Ultimately, I think the Heat put up a spirited effort and game 6 mirrors the 92-84 Miami win from game 1.  Dallas has been hitting huge shots to keep the game close even when they’ve been dominated for 3 quarters, and I just think this is the time for their luck to run out.  On top of that, we all know how the referees like to influence the final score, and there are definitely worst things out there for the NBA than a game 7 for all the marbles.  Look for the Heat to get plenty of foul calls in their favor, and I think we’ll have to wait until Tuesday to decide the champion for this year.

Mavericks 85

Heat 94