NCAA Tournament Score Predictions: Butler vs. UCONN

Written by Jake Thompson
Monday, 04 April 2011 22:40

Final score predictions are ready in tonight’s game between Butler and UCONN.

The #8 seed Butler Bulldogs (28-9) will try to keep their improbable tournament run going as they get set to take on the #3 seed UCONN Huskies (31-9) in tonight’s 2011 NCAA Championship game.  Butler and UCONN will tip at a 9:00 PM ET start time and you can catch the NCAA Championship game action on the CBS channel.  We’ll preview the last two teams standing and release our final score predictions so that our readers can get a better idea of what to expect tonight.

Las Vegas sportsbooks originally made UCONN a 4-point favorite but bettors have forced the Huskies down to -3 for tonight’s clash.  The over/under total is set at 131 points and has been bet up throughout the last few days.  The 2011 NCAA Championship game will be played at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas, and UCONN’s 18-5 record away from home bests the also impressive 16-7 mark that Butler has amassed on the year.

Butler scores 71.8 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from long range.  They have shot and scored fewer points away from home this season and they are shooting just 40.7% from the field over their last 5 games.  The UCONN defense has allowed opponents to shoot just 39.8% from this year and the Huskies have been absolutely fantastic in the NCAA Tournament, allowing just 59.0 points per game on 37.5% shooting over their last 5 games.  I’d expect Butler to struggle to get quality shots tonight and stars Shelvin Mack (16.1 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.5 APG) and Matt Howard (16.7 PPG, 7.8 RPA, 1.5 APG) are likely to have less than stellar games.

Kemba Walker (23.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.6 APG) gets all the publicity for the Huskies, but what many miss is that his 43.2% shooting from the field is actually worse than the team average of 43.6%.  UCONN scores 72.8 points per game but does not have the 3-point shooters that Butler boasts.  The Bulldogs have a strong defense as well and have really buckled down since the tournament started, allowing 63.0 points per game on 40.8% shooting on the year.  This team guards the perimeter and penetration by Walker and Mack will be a key for both teams if they want to get any rhythm to their offenses.

I don’t see either team having a big edge in rebounding but Butler should take better care of the ball while UCONN has better free throw shooters.  With the defensive nature of both teams, I expect the game to be low-scoring and ugly.  The team that has the most energy to get key loose balls is likely to claim a narrow win, and I’m going to say that Butler will be that team.  This one is razor thin and I’ll gladly take the points that Las Vegas is offering.

Butler 66
UCONN 64