NFL Predictions: Packers vs. Lions Preview

Written by Jake Thompson
Wednesday, 23 November 2011 16:32

Score predictions are included in our preview of the Thanksgiving Day NFL game between the Lions and the Packers.

The first of 3 NFL games on Thanksgiving Day will pit the Green Bay Packers (10-0) against the Detroit Lions (7-3).  Start time of the Packers vs. Lions game is set for 12:30 PM ET on the FOX channel, and we hope that our preview and predictions will have everyone on the right side of the action.  5Dimes Sportsbook has the betting odds showing the Packers as a 6-point favorite on the spread, along with a total of 55.5.

These NFC North rivals meet up at least twice every year, and it was the Lions that pulled the shocker in the last meeting.  Detroit was at home and won 7-3 as 7-point underdogs, but it was the only win for the Lions out of the 10 head-to-head meetings against the Packers since the 2006 season.  In addition, Green Bay has covered the point spread in 7 of last 10 games against the Lions.  The injury report has Detroit running back Jahvid Best (concussion) listed as doubtful, while Green Bay running back James Starks (knee) is questionable.

Packers’ Offense vs. Lions’ Defense:

It’s nearly impossible to stop Green Bay from scoring, and they enter this Thanksgiving Day game averaging 35.5 points on 304.9 passing yards per game.  They are just incredibly efficient, and Aaron Rodgers (3168 yards, 72.3%, 31 TD, 4 INT) simply doesn’t make mistakes.  The Lions’ defense started the year off looking like a juggernaut, but teams have since figured out a way to run on Detroit.  I’d look for the Packers to concentrate a bit more on running the ball, and a heavy dose of draws looks like a good way to keep this Detroit defense honest.  The possibility of Green Bay running the ball might prevent them from scoring a million points, but it’s the safest way to go against a Detroit squad with some incredible pass rushers that are often overanxious to get to the quarterback.

Lions’ Offense vs. Packers’ Defense:

The Lions also have a powerful offense that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard in a hurry.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford (2843 yards, 61.3%, 25 TD, 10 INT) has the Lions averaging 30.1 points and 272.4 passing yards each time out and Detroit has really increased their air attack in recent games.  The Packers have struggled against the pass statistically, but you have to account some of that “inability” to teams abandoning the run in a comeback effort.  That being said, the Packers have given up 30+ points to the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints this year, and I see those offenses being similar to the Lions’.

Packers vs. Lions Predictions:

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Predictions in this game are a bit interesting to make because the only times that Green Bay has given up big points, they’ve also won by a touchdown or more while outscoring their opponents with big plays.  I think the Lions have the pass rush to get to Rodgers, and that will throw Green Bay off rhythm when they turn to the run.  I’m not saying they won’t be successful with this strategy, but I’ll gladly back the Lions as underdogs in their home stadium.  Detroit has the offensive firepower to keep up, and I’ll call for the outright upset as the Packers are dealt their first loss of the year.

Packers 27

Lions 30