Saturday MLB Best Bet: Cubs vs. Braves

Written by Jake Thompson
Saturday, 13 August 2011 01:33

Saturday’s MLB best bet will be in the game between the Cubs and the Braves.

The 7:10 PM ET game between the Atlanta Braves (69-49) and the Chicago Cubs (51-67) has been selected as the Saturday MLB best bet.  Close to 60% of tracked MLB bettors are taking the home-team Braves despite the high -170 odds they’ll have to lay on Atlanta.  The total for the Cubs vs. Braves game sits at 8.5 runs and Atlanta has taken home wins in 6 of the last 8 head-to-head meetings.

NOTE: Due to time constraints, I’m forced to put up the Saturday MLB best bet quite early.  All of the records and statistics used in this article are accurate as of Friday with the Braves leading the Cubs 8-3 in the top of the 6th currently.  The results of our Friday MLB best bet between the Red Sox and Mariners are still pending, but we hope we’ll be going for our 15th straight if Boston gets the win.

It’s a bit strange to see the Braves as such large betting favorites when right-hander Derek Lowe (7-10, 1.48 WHIP, 4.78 ERA) is on the mound.  Lowe has been a great pitcher in years past but he has a 7.20 ERA over his last 3 starts and just doesn’t seem to have it this season.  The Cubs are hitting a solid .275 over their last 10 games and Lowe gave up 5 earned runs over 6.0 innings in his last start against Chicago in 2010.  Lowe has been hit hard all season long and will give up at least a few runs against the Cubs in this start.

Opposing Lowe will be right-hander Randy Wells (3-4, 1.59 WHIP, 6.05 ERA) for the Cubs.  Wells has also been horrible this season but his 5.68 ERA over his last 3 starts eclipses Lowe’s tally.  Wells has only allowed 1 earned run over 13.0 innings against the Braves in Atlanta, but he did give up 5 earned runs over 6.0 innings in his most recent 2010 start in Chicago.  Despite catcher Brian McCann (.306, 18 HRs) being sidelined for the last 14 games with a strained left oblique, the Braves are hitting .282 over their last 10 goes.

The bullpen edge is clearly in Atlanta’s favor with their sterling group of relievers showing just a 1.11 WHIP and 2.13 ERA on the season.  Chicago’s relief pitchers have made it interesting numerous times this season and will bring in a 1.37 WHIP and 3.88 ERA.  Wells and Lowe are 5-6 inning starters at this stage in their respective careers and it appears that the bullpens will play a part in deciding a winner.

Although I do believe there is value in taking a shot at the underdog Cubs, the safest play to make seems to be on the total getting over 8.5 runs.  If Atlanta hits as well as the MLB odds indicate, they’ll have Wells out of the game in no time and could very well topple this total by themselves once the Chicago relief pitchers come into the game.  Lowe has been so bad that he’s bound to give up some runs as well and I don’t see this game staying under for very many innings.

Cubs 5

Braves 6