Saturday MLB Best Bet: Tigers vs. Rockies

Written by Jake Thompson
Saturday, 18 June 2011 00:48

Our MLB best bet for Friday will be in the 8:10 PM ET game between the Tigers and Rockies.

The Detroit Tigers (38-31) have been one of the best MLB success stories of the year, and they’ll be on the road for Saturday’s clash with the Colorado Rockies.  Online sportsbooks have made Colorado a -155 betting favorite for this tilt, yet close to 70% of tracked MLB bettors are taking the Tigers as medium-sized underdogs according to bet-tracked websites.  Detroit has won just 1 of the last 8 head-to-head meetings with the Rockies, and we’ll go over both teams to help you guys figure out the best bet to make here.

Phil Coke (1-6, 1.28 WHIP, 3.69) has been a nice success story for Detroit this year despite his poor win/loss record.  The late-starting left-hander has dominated most of his starts this season and will be going against a Colorado team that hits just .244 against southpaws.  Although the Rockies are hitting a red hot .305 over their last 10 games, their average against lefties over that time is just .259.  The knock on Coke is that he doesn’t go deep into games, but Detroit’s bullpen brings a 3.00 season ERA into the matchup if they are needed.

Opposing Coke will be yearly top-end starter Ubaldo Jimenez (1-7, 1.38, 4.62), another hard luck pitcher that just can’t seem to get into the win column.  We’ve been documenting Jimenez’s lack of velocity this season, and it doesn’t appear to be getting any better despite a 1.03 WHIP and 1.69 ERA over his last 3 starts.  Those tremendous outings came against the light-hitting Dodgers (twice) and Padres, and I still don’t think this star is in regular season form at this point in the season.  With the Tigers coming in hitting .301 over their last 10 games, I could definitely see this guy surrendering some runs.

The best bet to make in this Saturday showdown is to go with the Tigers as underdogs because of Jimenez’s struggles.  Coke can be erratic at times, but he’s pitched very well in most of his games this season and should give Detroit a chance at the win.  Colorado just isn’t connecting against left-handed pitching this year, and I don’t see it getting any better against a guy that has looked as strong as Coke has this year.  Jimenez has given up 7 earned runs in his 2 career starts against Detroit (both losses), and I think a similar effort is going to present itself here.

Tigers 5

Rockies 3