Saturday MLB Best Bet: Yankees vs. Mariners

Written by Jake Thompson
Saturday, 28 May 2011 16:33

The Yankees and the Mariners will play in our MLB best bet for Saturday.

Online sportsbooks have the home-team Seattle Mariners (25-25) as -135 betting favorites for their 10:10 PM ET late game against the New York Yankees (27-22), and this clash has been selected as the MLB best bet for Saturday.  Seattle has been quite the surprise team this season while New York has been a disappointment, and we’ll let you know which squad is likely to take home the victory in this American League showdown.

Seattle has won 8 of their last 9 overall games while the Yankees are also hot, winning in 7 of their last 10.  The Mariners took home a 4-3 victory in the first game of this series, but it was the Yankees that won in 6 of the 10 head-to-head meetings during the 2010 MLB season.  Weather conditions are calling for an overcast night game, and it’s worth noting that umpire Sam Holbrook hasn’t been kind to pitchers with 8 of the 9 games he’s called this season going over the betting total.

The only way the Mariners are ever favored over the Yankees is when Felix Hernandez (5-4, 1.09 WHIP, 3.01 ERA) is on the mound, and such is the case today as the right-handed ace is set to start.  The Yankees have hit just .249 on the season, but have shown a slight improvement after batting .266 over their last 10 games.  Still, thinks are not close to 100% for the New York bats and has allowed just 2 earned runs over his last 4 starts against the Yankees, including 3 of those being complete games.  Hernandez is pitching very well this year and should have another great start.

The Yankees will counter with phenom Ivan Nova (4-3, 1.55 WHIP, 4.29 ERA), and he should also put in quality innings against a Seattle team that is hitting just .227 on the year.  The Mariners have almost no offense, and their .239 average over their last 10 games indicate that things are likely to stay this way all season.  Seattle has never faced Nova and that will make it even tougher for them to score runs in this clash.

Although Hernandez is likely to pitch a great game, the bet here has to be on the Yankees since Seattle just can’t be counted on to score runs.  This game is likely to be low-scoring and could feasibly be tied late, meaning that New York’s 2.61 bullpen ERA, as well as Seattle’s 3.59 bullpen ERA, could figure into the equation.  I’ll gladly take the underdog with the superior bullpen and offense, despite how great of a pitcher Hernandez is.  A bet on the under 7 runs should also be a winner in this pitching-fueled matchup.

Yankees 2

Mariners 1