Sunday MLB Best Bet: Marlins vs. Rangers

Written by Jake Thompson
Sunday, 03 July 2011 18:58

The Marlins and Rangers will do battle in our MLB best bet for Sunday.

Start time between the Texas Rangers (44-40) and the Florida Marlins (37-46) is set for 8:05 PM ET this evening, and this game has been selected as Sunday’s MLB best bet.  Online sportsbooks have made the home-team Rangers a large -200 betting favorite, but those high odds aren’t stopping bettors from picking the Rangers at a 75% ratio according to tracking websites.  We’ll investigate how both squads are playing and let you know which way to go here.

Although the Marlins have been scoring runs in Texas’ offensive-friendly stadium confines, I’m still concerned about them scoring runs because of their .234 average on the season and their .236 mark over the past 10 games.  Florida will be going against left-hander C.J. Wilson (8-3, 1.23 WHIP, 3.14 ERA) and the Marlins have hit only .243 against southpaws this season.  Wilson went 6.0 innings while only allowing 2 earned runs in his only career start against Florida back in 2010 and I could see a similar outing tonight.

Opposing Wilson will be Javier Vazquez (4-8, 1.58 WHIP, 5.83 ERA) as the veteran start looks to continue his recent hot streak.  Vazquez has a 1.04 ERA over his last 3 starts, but his 1.33 WHIP over that time period makes me believe that he still isn’t capable of dominating good teams.  His recent success has come against some weaker hitting clubs, and the Rangers score plenty of runs in their home park (.274 average at home this year).  Vazquez went into Texas twice last year, allowing 14 hits, 4 walks, and 10 earned runs over 9.1 total innings pitched.  I think he’ll get hit pretty well and revert back to his earlier season form because the velocity is simply not there anymore.

The wildcard here is the Rangers’ bullpen, and their 1.33 WHIP this season indicates that they could give up some late runs to even things out a bit.  That being said, Florida’s relief pitchers have a 1.26 WHIP and a 3.52 ERA so they aren’t a dominant unit either.  The Rangers are hitting .269 over their last 10 games and can put up runs in a heartbeat at home.  Don’t be swayed by Vazquez’s seeming resurgence of late because I expect him to last 3-4 innings before leaving with his team down quite a bit.

Marlins 3

Rangers 7