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Sunday MLB Best Bet: Twins vs. Diamondbacks
Written by Jake Thompson
Sunday, 22 May 2011 15:51
The Twins and Diamondbacks take center stage in our MLB best bet for Sunday.
It’s been a tough year so far for the Minnesota Twins (15-29), and they’ll look to reverse the negative trend in today’s 4:10 PM ET clash with the Arizona Diamondbacks (22-23). The Diamondbacks have put together a 15-10 home record this season, and the online sportsbooks have listed them as the medium-sized favorite as they get set to host a visiting Minnesota squad that is just 11-18 on the road.
The home team has won the last 5 head-to-head meetings between these squads, and Arizona will start young right-hander Daniel Hudson (4-5, 1.31 WHIP, 4.03 ERA). The Twins have hit just .230 this season thanks to a rash of injuries, but they should enjoy the smaller confines of Chase Field when it comes to the long ball. The problem is that Hudson isn’t a guy that gives up home runs and Minnesota’s top-end scoring output here might be 2-3 runs with how well the Diamondbacks’ relief pitchers have been throwing.
Minnesota will counter with staff ace Francisco Liriano (3-5, 1.43 WHIP, 6.12 ERA), and it’s nearly impossible to figure out how this guy will pitch. He’s been alternating between getting rocked and being unhittable and I like the fact that Liriano has never faced the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks only just .238 against left-handers this season, but they also have been able to score plenty of runs when playing at home. The Twins have a 4.64 bullpen ERA this season and they’ll need Liriano to go deep into this one if they want to win.
Ultimately, this game comes down to the fact that Liriano could throw another no-hitter if he is on, and I can’t resist making a play when I’m getting close to +150 odds on the Twins. I don’t think Minnesota’s offense will score a ton of runs, but 1 or 2 might be all they need if this star lefty has it all together. He might get rocked and leave after 3 innings, but I like the value when you figure in just how incredible Liriano has looked at times this season.
Twins 3
Diamondbacks 2