Thursday MLB Best Bet: Indians vs. Royals

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 21 April 2011 16:43

The Indians and Royals square off in Thursday’s MLB best bet.

Hopefully we can all win some money in the Thursday MLB best bet as the Cleveland Indians (13-5) travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals (11-7).  Both American League Central teams have been pleasant surprises this season and we’ll see if Cleveland’s 6-3 road record can hold up against Kansas City’s 8-5 mark at home.  Online sportsbooks have made this game a pick at close to even money each way and our best bet will let you know which way to go in this tough-to-handicap clash.

The Indians have won 5 of the last 6 head-to-head meetings between these clubs and will have right-hander Josh Tomlin (3-0, .92 WHIP, 2.75 ERA) on the mound today.  Although the 26-year-old has had success this season, I’m a bit skeptical about his chances to keep it going since he allows so many hits into play.  Tomlin gave up 6 runs over 5 innings in his only start in Kansas City, and gave up a total of 18 hits, 8 walks, and 12 earned runs over his 3 starts and 19 innings pitched against the Royals last year.  Kansas City has been very hot lately, averaging nearly 9 base runners against the opposing team’s starting pitcher this season.

The Royals will counter with righty Sean O’Sullivan (1-1, 1.67 WHIP, 5.00 ERA) and his only productive outing all season came against the light-hitting Mariners.  O’Sullivan started two games against the Indians last season and tallied 10 innings total while allowing 10 hits, 4 walks, and 7 earned runs.  He could be in for a long day against a Cleveland offense that is scoring nearly 4 runs a game against the opposing team’s starting pitcher over their last 12 games.  The Indians now have Grady Sizemore back in the outfield and their offensive surge has been every bit as big of a surprise as the Royals’ newfound ability to score runs.

Although I’m not sure either bullpen will be able to sustain their early success, both groups of relief pitchers have been very good to start the season.  Ultimately, I believe that O’Sullivan is the pitcher that is more likely to have a horrible outing here and I’ll be backing the Indians.  Tomlin is due for a statistical regression to the mean at some point but is still talented enough to put in decent innings, while I feel O’Sullivan has a real chance to be knocked out by the 3rd or 4th inning tonight.

Indians 6

Royals 3