Thursday MLB Best Bet: Mariners vs. Angels

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 07 July 2011 04:52

There isn’t a better MLB best on the schedule than the clash between the Mariners and Angels.

Online sportsbooks have made the home-team Los Angeles Angels (46-41) the -176 betting favorite over the visiting Seattle Mariners (43-43), and we’ll breakdown both teams so that you know which squad to take.  Although the Mariners have taken 3 of the 5 head-to-head meetings this season, it was the Angels that won 13 of 15 games during the previous year.  Although Los Angeles has won 8 of their last 10 this year, the Mariners are in the middle of a nice streak that has seen them take home wins in 4 of their last 5 games.

Why the Angels Will Win

Jered Weaver (10-4, 0.92 WHIP, 1.92 ERA) is on the mound and he has been unhittable this year.  Weaver has won his last 9 straight home starts against the Mariners, and Seattle comes in hitting a putrid .200 over their last 10 games.  Weaver has a 1.23 ERA over his last 22.0 innings and, if needed, he’ll hand the ball off to a bullpen that is sporting a 3.06 ERA on the year.  Outfielder Vernon Wells is finally starting to heat up after a slow start, and has hit home runs in 5 of his last 10 games while raising his batting average by 11 points over that span.

Why the Mariners Will Win

Seattle starter Doug Fister (3-9, 1.16 WHIP, 3.02 ERA) has been one of the best success stories of the season, and he comes in with a 0.76 WHIP and a 1.08 ERA over his past 25.0 innings.  His win/loss record is not at all indicative of how he’s pitched, and Fister has only allowed 16 batters to reach base over the 15.0 innings he’s pitched against the Angels this year.  Los Angeles has hit just .238 at home this season, and their 22-21 mark at Angel Stadium of Anaheim is actually worse than their 24-20 road record.  Fister goes deep into games, but if he runs into a high pitch count then he’ll be handing off the ball to relief pitchers who have a cumulative 2.75 ERA.

MLB Best Bet for Thursday

Although I’m usually all for going with large underdogs when a pitcher is throwing as well as Fister, ultimately the bet to make here is Los Angeles.  Seattle simply can’t hit against even average pitchers and Weaver just dominates this squad every time out.  The Angels are good enough to score a few runs at home and I’m not at all convinced that the Mariners force the scoreboard operator to do anything other than twiddle his or her thumbs.

Mariners 1

Angels 3