Thursday MLB Best Bet: Mariners vs. Orioles

Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 12 May 2011 14:44

We’ll go with the Orioles and Mariners game for our Thursday MLB best bet.

The Seattle Mariners (16-21) and the Baltimore Orioles (16-19) might not be the best MLB teams playing today, but this matchup is perfect for our Thursday MLB best bet.  Online sportsbooks have made the hosting Orioles the medium-sized betting favorites and Baltimore will be putting their 9-11 home mark on the line against a Seattle squad that has put together a solid 8-10 record on the road this year.  Close to 60% of tracked MLB bettors are taking the Orioles and we’ll let you know if they are on the right side of the action.

Baltimore has won 5 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings against the Mariners and the Orioles will go with left-hander Zach Britton (5-2, 1.16 WHIP, 2.93 ERA) as their starting pitcher for this 7:05 PM ET clash.  The Mariners have never faced Britton but have hit .257 against lefties this season.  It’s a bit encouraging when you figure that Seattle hasn’t been able to touch right-handers at all.  Britton is coming off a start in which he struggled with his command after having a callus removed from his pitching hand, but I still expect him to pitch 6 solid innings tonight.

Seattle has a lefty of their own on the hill and its Jason Vargas (2-2, 1.32 WHIP, 4.68 ERA) that will draw the start against Baltimore.  The Orioles have hit just .226 against southpaws this season, but it is encouraging that their .253 batting average over their last 10 games just crushes the Mariners’ .218 mark over the same time.  It’s still not known if right fielder Nick Markakis (.239, 3 HR, 13 RBIs) will play today after sitting out Wednesday’s game with the flu.  The Orioles’ lineup is quite a bit different from in previous seasons, but it is still worth noting that Vargas has given up no more than 3 runs in his 4 career starts against Baltimore.

Neither of these starting pitchers goes deep into games so I could see the bullpens figuring into the final score.  Baltimore’s 4.78 bullpen ERA beats the 5.19 mark that Seattle relievers have put together this season, but ultimately I wouldn’t trust either of these late-inning ‘pens with the way they’ve been serving up runs.

The only way I see the Orioles dropping this game is if Britton is bothered badly by the callus, but since he put together a decent effort last time out and it’s had another week to heal, I expect him to be fine.  He’s tough to score against when his sinker is working properly and the Mariners are likely looking at a run or two as the best possible scenario against him.  Vargas could throw some good innings as well but he’s not as reliable and the Mariners’ bullpen is more likely to give up late runs.  Go with the Orioles to get it done at home with the superior pitcher.

Mariners 2

Orioles 5