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Thursday MLB Best Bet: Marlins vs. Padres
Written by Jake Thompson
Thursday, 18 August 2011 17:27
We’ll preview the Marlins vs. Padres game for our Thursday MLB best bet.
The Florida Marlins (57-66) will visit the San Diego Padres (55-70) in this 10:05 PM ET game, and the National League clash has been selected as our Thursday MLB best bet. San Diego won all 3 of the games this season during an earlier series in Florida and has now taken 9 of the last 11 head-to-head meetings against the Padres. Online sportsbooks have the MLB odds favoring the home-team Padres at -135 with a low total set at just 6.5 runs.
After a slow start to the season, Florida right-hander Javier Vazquez (7-10, 1.39 WHIP, 4.68 ERA) now has a 0.90 WHIP and 2.25 ERA over his last 3 starts. There was a big lack of velocity at the beginning of the year but it appears that Vazquez has turned it around a bit. The bad news is that he allowed 5 earned runs over just 4.1 innings in his only start against the Padres this season. For the better part of his career Vazquez has seen plenty of success pitching in this massive park and will be going against a San Diego squad that hits just .215 at home.
Right-hander Tim Stauffer (7-9, 1.26 WHIP, 3.53 ERA) draws the start for the Padres and this guy has been streaky this season. Stauffer has a 1.41 WHIP and 7.16 ERA over his last 3 starts but almost all of his poor games have come on the road this year. He’s allowed just 1 earned run over 12.0 career innings against Florida and he’ll be facing a squad that has hit a horrendous .219 over their last 10 games. The Marlins have numerous injuries in their starting lineup, including a shoulder ding that has kept star shortstop Hanley Ramirez on the shelf for the past 13 games.
Although I wouldn’t necessarily call either bullpen dominant, both have good groups of relief pitchers that should be able to get key outs in this stadium. I like the fact that the Padres are hitting .279 over their last 10 games and I consider Stauffer to be the better pitcher of these two. San Diego is the MLB best bet for Thursday and I think they can get the job done. Vazquez has pitched over his head recently and Stauffer rarely gives up runs during his home games.
Marlins 2
Padres 4